A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Friday Crude Oil prices consolidated but
it looked more like position squaring before a week-end.
October Brent contract closed at $113,71/bbl down- $1,56
and WTI at $96,01/bbl down -$0,41. Crude Oil is trading
in a bullish pattern and is showing no sign of turning
down so far. On Friday the Michigan Consumer Confidence
came out unexpectedly higher at 73,6 vs 72,2 exp. This
morning the market is supported by (another) speculation
that the ECB will introduce a Yield-Cap on Sovereign
Bonds to intervene but it seems very unlikely. Today
will be quiet in terms of data with only a minor index
to look at from the US: the Chicago Fed Activity Index.
Singapore is closed today and will reopen tomorrow.
Crude Oil is trading higher.
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The NWE fuel oil market closed the week on
a lower note resulting in slightly increased demand.
Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam was assessed down
app.$2/mt while cargo prices posted nearly $3/mt loss.
Rotterdam port reported improved product avails for both
lsfo and hsfo while the later supplies in Antwerp were
tightening. The Singapore fuel oil prices softened last
Friday, down by app.$1.5/mt during morning Platts
window. There was reported mixed demand in the area.
Singapore market is closed today for public holiday and
will reopen tomorrow. This morning both markets are
trading higher.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
0.41 |
96.01 |
↑ |
96.54 |
96.79 |
97.18 |
97.93 |
97.46 |
97.16 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
- |
113.71 |
↑ |
113.97 |
113.31 |
112.82 |
111.44 |
110.08 |
112.84 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
2.50 |
979.75 |
↑ |
981.92 |
979.25 |
974.83 |
961.58 |
950.61 |
949.84 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(3.00) |
644.75 |
↑ |
648.75 |
645.75 |
643.25 |
637.25 |
630.50 |
625.00 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(2.50) |
644.00 |
↑ |
644.00 |
641.00 |
638.50 |
632.75 |
626.25 |
621.00 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
0.50 |
709.25 |
↑ |
702.00 |
694.25 |
688.25 |
675.00 |
667.25 |
661.50 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(0.78) |
101.73 |
↑ |
100.75 |
100.25 |
100.00 |
98.00 |
97.00 |
97.50 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(1.25) |
670.00 |
↑ |
669.50 |
666.75 |
665.00 |
659.75 |
653.00 |
649.50 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
2.75 |
977.00 |
↑ |
982.25 |
979.25 |
975.25 |
963.25 |
948.25 |
949.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
(2.00) |
653.00 |
↑ |
659.00 |
656.00 |
653.50 |
647.50 |
640.75 |
635.25 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(1.00) |
677.00 |
↑ |
679.75 |
677.00 |
675.25 |
670.50 |
663.75 |
658.25 |
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Focus of
the day: Gibraltar |
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The three ports in the Strait of Gibraltar
are running smoothly today, with good weather forecast
for the rest of the week and no delays expected. The hub
is currently seeing a quite good demand. Last week
started with poor demand and low premiums, which
increased along the week together with the level of
activity. However, there is still room for booking
prompt requirements and good avails of all products and
barges.
The HILO spread keeps widening to the current
50 USD and CIF Med is trading at a 10USD premium on FOB
Barges Rotterdam. The Med market is trading up this
morning.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| FOMC Minutes |
High |
21-Aug |
2:00 PM |
31-Jul |
- |
- |
- |
| MBA Mortgage Index |
Medium |
22-Aug |
7:00 AM |
18-Aug |
NA |
-4.5% |
- |
| Existing Home Sales |
Medium |
22-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Jul |
4.3M |
4.37M |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
23-Aug |
8:30 AM |
18-Aug |
365K |
366K |
- |
| New Home Sales |
Medium |
23-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Jul |
375K |
350K |
- |
| Durable Orders |
High |
24-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
3.5% |
1.3% |
- |
| Durable Orders- ex
Transportation |
Medium |
24-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.0% |
-1.4% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
114.35 |
96.70 |
983.25 |
| Next |
115.00 |
96.95 |
987.00 |
| Strong |
116.90 |
97.90 |
991.50 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
112.55 |
95.10 |
976.75 |
| Next |
111.40 |
94.30 |
972.40 |
| Strong |
109.65 |
93.25 |
967.30 |
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Energy complex did quite
ok on the previous week close. Brent posted a small
correction last Friday on profit taking after several
days of a steady climb. The contract closed cents below
its MA8, but remains connected to the level this
morning. Contrary to the European grade WTI made a new
height at the end of the week and trades slightly higher
today. It is positioned to test the resistance from its
MA200 (@ 96.7 on the continuation chart) as it is the
last contract trading below. A convincing move above
this level would be bullish; however it might prove to
be difficult. Performance of the GO contract was
somewhere in between crudes. It finished the week with a
small intraday loss though managed to post both d-o-d
gain and a new high on close. Indicators are slightly
indecisive on all charts though we don't see a power for
a strong move. Traders need to watch Brent performance
around MA8 (114.35 on continuation) as a dis- attach
from the level might lead the whole complex. We maintain
a cautiously positive view, though a temporary weakness
may net be ruled out. |
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Source: OW Risk Management