A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude Oil started the week firm and
softened towards the end of the trading session. The
September WTI futures closed down -$0.14 to settle at
$92.73/bbl while Brent rose +$0.65 to close at
$113.60/bbl. Supporting Oil are tensions between Israel
and Iran over the nuclear debate but more importantly
hopes of stimuli from Central banks. Market remains in
cautious mood. This morning the German and French
economy growth slowed less than forecast in the second
quarter respectively +0,3% and unchanged. The German Zew
Business expectations will be published this morning
followed by US Retail Sales, Producer Prices and
Business Inventories later in the afternoon. September
Brent is trading up 0,40%.
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The NWE fuel oil market started the week
with higher prices. Both cargo and delivered 380cst
product in Rotterdam were assessed up by app.$2/mt.
Firming prices resulted in increasing demand. Rotterdam
port still reports some delays at loading installations.
The Singapore fuel oil market prices rose marginally
+$0.5 to $1.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday
tracking crude movements. The latest Singapore inventory
shows ample supply with another build. The strong supply
eased the fuel oil backwardation curve. The delivered
bunker premiums were around $6.00-7.00 above cargo
prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained app. $4.5-3.5/mt
along the curve both for 3.5% Rtdam barges FOB and
Singapore 180cst cargoes FOB. This morning both markets
are trading higher.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(0.14) |
92.73 |
↑ |
93.57 |
93.93 |
94.43 |
95.45 |
95.39 |
94.45 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
0.65 |
113.60 |
↑ |
111.85 |
111.25 |
110.84 |
109.72 |
108.27 |
110.87 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(2.25) |
957.25 |
↑ |
959.50 |
959.00 |
956.33 |
946.61 |
933.53 |
932.76 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
2.25 |
633.25 |
↑ |
637.75 |
634.25 |
631.25 |
624.50 |
617.50 |
614.25 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
3.75 |
631.50 |
↑ |
631.50 |
629.00 |
626.50 |
620.25 |
613.25 |
610.25 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
5.00 |
692.75 |
↑ |
686.25 |
678.25 |
672.00 |
659.25 |
651.75 |
648.50 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
0.60 |
98.75 |
↑ |
99.50 |
98.75 |
98.25 |
96.00 |
95.00 |
95.50 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
0.50 |
655.25 |
↑ |
657.50 |
655.25 |
653.25 |
647.00 |
640.00 |
636.75 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
2.50 |
952.50 |
↑ |
960.25 |
959.25 |
957.25 |
948.25 |
935.25 |
934.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
2.00 |
643.25 |
↑ |
648.00 |
644.50 |
641.50 |
634.75 |
627.75 |
624.50 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
1.00 |
663.00 |
↑ |
667.75 |
665.50 |
663.50 |
657.75 |
650.75 |
647.50 |
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The situation in ARA is returning to
normal. The problem with availability is improving after
a few months with lesser demand than usual. Especially
the issues with RMK500 and RMG380 1% seems to be
improving. The general market itself rose almost on a
daily basis and some suppliers have been acting on that
trend by adding volume length to their operation. Due to
that we have seen premiums being lower than most days.
The hilo spread remains around $60 and the viscosity
spread on delivered volume is around $25-30 depending on
stem size.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Retail Sales |
High |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
- |
| PPI- Core |
Medium |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.1% |
- |
| Business Inventories |
Medium |
14-Aug |
10:00 AM |
June |
0.2% |
0.3% |
- |
| CPI- Core |
High |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.2% |
- |
| Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Aug |
5.0 |
7.4 |
- |
| Industrial Production |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
1.0% |
0.4% |
- |
| Capacity Utilization |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
79.4% |
78.9% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
11-Aug |
365K |
361K |
- |
| Housing Starts |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
770K |
760K |
- |
| Philadelphia Fed |
Medium |
16-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
-5.0 |
-12.9 |
- |
| Mich Sentiment |
High |
17-Aug |
9:55 AM |
Aug |
71.0 |
72.3 |
- |
| Leading Indicators |
Medium |
17-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
113.95 |
93.35 |
961.45 |
| Next |
115.10 |
94.10 |
967.25 |
| Strong |
116.00 |
94.25 |
976.70 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
113.15 |
93.10 |
958.05 |
| Next |
112.05 |
92.85 |
953.00 |
| Strong |
109.70 |
91.30 |
948.25 |
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Technical picture on all
charts we watched changed quite a bit since we wrote our
last comment. All the contracts made new monthly tops
recently but were somehow different yesterday. Brent
crude tested levels above an important 38,2% Fibo @
103.6, but managed to post a small gain only as a result
of the day. Lagging WTI and GO had been traded within
the recent ranges having made the monthly tops so far
few days back. Note RSI divergence on both charts. All
contracts are trading with a gain this morning. However,
we advise to remain cautious today as this session might
show if the bulls have enough stamina to move markets
higher. To maintain positive outlook the contracts shall
remain above their s/t MAs. A move above the recent
heights on close on WTI and/or GO chart would be
positive and could pull the rest of the complex up.
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Source: OW Risk Management