A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude futures prices had been trading sideways yesterday closing the day roughly unchanged. September WTI contracts settled at $95.97/bbl, down by $0.04; it expires later today. October WTI futures settled at $96.26/bbl yesterday while the October Brent futures lost a cent and closed at $113.70/bbl. Euro remained roughly unchanged as well on a degree of uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s policies towards containing the sovereign debts issues. Weekly US API inventory report will be published today, one day prior a more widely watched US Energy Department inventory data. The expected numbers are as follows: crude +0,05mbbls, gasoline -0,05mbbls and distillates +0,25mbbls. Minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday and could influence the market significantly. Some analysts believe that possibilities of a new round of the momentary easing remain pretty remote at the moment. The market looks quite neutral and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran remain a wildcard. This morning, both crudes trade higher.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European fuel oil market started the week slowly. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam posted app.$3/mt loss compared to previous day close while cargo prices were slightly stronger, assessed app.$2/mt down. The Singapore markets were closed yesterday for public holiday and reopened today. This morning both markets are trading slightly up.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Sep Oct Nov Q113 Q213 2013 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0.04) 95.97 ↑ 97.01 97.32 97.65 97.95 97.84 97.67 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0.01) 113.70 ↑ 114.09 113.55 113.14 111.88 110.48 113.15 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (0.75) 979.00 ↑ 982.67 980.75 977.25 965.67 950.75 949.67 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (2.00) 642.75 ↑ 647.75 645.00 642.50 636.00 629.00 625.25 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 0.00 644.00 ↑ 643.25 640.50 637.75 631.50 624.75 621.25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (3.25) 706.00 ↑ 699.25 691.25 685.00 670.75 662.75 658.75 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0.32) 101.40 ↑ 101.25 100.75 100.50 98.50 97.50 98.00 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (1.25) 670.00 ↑ 668.75 666.00 664.25 658.50 651.50 647.75 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (1.00) 976.00 ↑ 983.25 981.25 978.25 967.25 952.25 951.25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (3.00) 650.00 ↑ 658.00 655.25 652.75 646.25 639.25 635.50 Physical Singapore 380 CST (1.00) 677.00 ↑ 679.00 676.25 674.50 669.25 662.25 658.50

Focus of the day: ARA

Whereas the oil market has gained a lot of strength again in the last weeks it now looks a bit like we have found a balance around app. $114/bbl on Brent. Keeping this in mind the market doesn’t seem to be determined that much by big positions from suppliers in the market anymore. At the same time however suppliers seem to have enough product available and avails for all grades are fine for the time being.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual FOMC Minutes High 21-Aug 2:00 PM 31-Jul - - - MBA Mortgage Index Medium 22-Aug 7:00 AM 18-Aug NA -4.5% - Existing Home Sales Medium 22-Aug 10:00 AM Jul 4.3M 4.37M - Initial Claims Medium 23-Aug 8:30 AM 18-Aug 365K 366K - New Home Sales Medium 23-Aug 10:00 AM Jul 375K 350K - Durable Orders High 24-Aug 8:30 AM Jul 3.5% 1.3% - Durable Orders- ex Transportation Medium 24-Aug 8:30 AM Jul 0.0% -1.4% -

Technical indicators

Daily Charts Resistance Brent WTI GO Near 114.35 96.75 983.25 Next 115.00 96.95 987.00 Strong 116.90 97.90 991.50 Support Brent WTI GO Near 113.15 95.70 977.40 Next 111.40 94.70 972.40 Strong 110.20 93.95 970.10       Energy contracts maintain positive outlook but lacking momentum to move above resistance levels. Brent closed roughly unchanged yesterday and trades up this morning. It remains below MA8 at the moment but is positioned to test it. We remain positive unless the contracts move below the recent range and see the nearby support at MA13 @ 113.2. WTI closed with a gain yesterday having made a new height again. The contract is positioned to test the resistance from MA200 @ 96.75 on continuation. A convincing move higher would be very positive for the whole complex. GO is testing again the nearby resistance at this month top @ 983.25. A convincing move above this level would be positive as well. Note however rather high readings of momentum indicators on all charts implying weak upward momentum. EUR/USD is testing the recent height above 1.24. A move above would be supportive for the USD denominated energy contracts.

Source: OW Risk Management