A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Yesterday Crude Oil trading session was volatile with a thin market due to bank holiday in UK. Crude Oil jumped on Hurricane Isaac and risk of Oil disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico but lost all the gains by the end of the session. The October WTI contract closed at $95.47/bbl, down -$0.68 and Brent fell -$1.33 to $112.26/bbl. Supply is also diminished by an explosion at the largest Venezuelan refinery which sent gasoline prices higher. Today, the US August consumer confidence index is expected to be released and investors attention will turn to the second quarter US GDP expected tomorrow. Market is also looking forward to the Jackson hole speech by the US Federal Chairman on Friday for hints on which tools will be used to the next FOMC meeting the 12th-13th September. Also scheduled the European Central Bank (ECB) President speech this coming Saturday. This morning, crude is trading up.

Fueloil Specifics

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $4.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday lifted by stronger crude values. The Amuay refinery fires will impact the Asia regional supply as Venezuela exports oil products to Asia regularly (a monthly average of around 400,000mt fuel oil according to IE). The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $7.25 above the cargo prices. The Northwest European fuel oil prices were slightly up on Monday. Though due to Bank holiday in UK there were no Platts numbers published yesterday. This morning both markets are trading down.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Sep Oct Nov Q113 Q213 2013 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0.68) 95.47 ↑ 96.34 96.64 96.97 97.52 96.76 97.00 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (1.33) 112.26 ↑ 112.33 111.87 111.38 110.17 108.81 111.40 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (6.75) 982.75 ↑ 984.25 980.67 974.67 962.00 946.57 945.67 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm - 649.25 ↓ 646.25 643.00 639.75 632.50 625.50 622.50 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med - 647.00 ↓ 641.00 637.75 634.75 628.00 621.25 618.50 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE - 706.25 ↓ 694.50 686.50 679.75 666.25 658.25 655.25 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0.13) 100.05 ↑ 101.00 100.50 100.00 97.50 96.25 97.00 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 5.75 680.00 ↓ 667.75 663.75 661.75 655.50 648.50 645.50 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (8.00) 984.50 ↑ 984.25 981.25 975.25 958.25 940.25 943.25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST - 654.25 ↓ 656.50 653.25 650.00 642.75 635.75 632.75 Physical Singapore 380 CST 4.50 687.25 ↓ 678.00 674.00 672.00 666.25 659.25 656.25

Focus of the day: ARA

Situation in ARA has not changed a lot since the last weeks report; we still see good avails for the coming days and weeks for basically all products. The spread between 3,5% and 1% barges has being traded between 50 and 60usd for quiet a period now. The stocks for 1% fuel oil have however increased due to some new incoming cargoes. There are several suppliers being very interested in offering contract solutions to their bigger clients.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Case-Shiller 20-city Index High 28-Aug 9:00 AM Jun -0.3% -0.7% - Consumer Confidence Medium 28-Aug 10:00 AM Aug 66.5 65.9 - GDP- Second Extimate Medium 29-Aug 8:30 AM Q2 1.6% 1.6% - Fed's Beige Book Medium 29-Aug 2:00 PM Aug - - - Initial Claims Medium 30-Aug 8:30 AM 25-Aug 370K 372K - Personal Income High 30-Aug 8:30 AM Jul 0.2% 0.5% - Personal Spending Medium 30-Aug 8:30 AM Jul 0.5% 0.0% - PCE Prices Medium 30-Aug 8:30 AM Jul 0.1% 0.2% - Chicago PMI Medium 31-Aug 9:45 AM Aug 53.0 53.7 - Michigan Sentiment Medium 31-Aug 9:55 AM Aug 74.0 73.6 - Factory Orders Medium 31-Aug 10:00 AM Jul 2.1% -0.5% -

Technical indicators

Daily Charts Resistance Brent WTI GO Near 113.80 96.25 985.60 Next 114.10 96.95 987.45 Strong 116.95 97.90 995.50 Support Brent WTI GO Near 112.20 95.30 977.30 Next 111.45 94.70 972.40 Strong 110.20 93.95 970.10       Energy contracts look more neutral compared to the situation a week ago when we published the previous comment. The contracts are positioned to test nearby supports and it remains to be seen if the levels hold. WTI and GO made new monthly heights last week and slid below their s/t MA after that. This morning both contracts trade between their MA13 and MA21. Brent crude outperformed the rest of the complex in the beginning of the month, but was not that impressive for the last few days. It did not put any fresh threat to the mid month top @ 117.0 made on July 16. Yesterday the contract slid lower closing cents from its MA21 @ 112.25. It was trading below this level this morning but remains connected. A stronger support might be found at MA200 @ 111.45 on continuation. However, eventual move below this level would be quite bearish with targets at 108.05 and potentially at 103.00. To put targets above the market to the agenda the contract shall recover above s/t MAs. EUR/USD shall stay above 1.246 or at least above 1.243 to be supportive for the USD denominated energy contracts.

Source: OW Risk Management