A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude Oil price pattern is the same day in
and out with a subdued morning session and new highs
during the US session typical of a bullish market . The
September Brent Oil contract expired yesterday up +$0.65
at $116.90/bbl and October Brent closed $115.27/bbl, up
+$0.96. The September WTI settled $95.60/bbl, up +$1.27
yesterday. The WTI/ Brent spread eased yesterday below
$20 seeing some liquidation also due to the expiration
of the September Brent contract. Market remains
supported from the idea that governments will introduce
stimuli growth policies. But after a batch of much
better than expected data from the US (Non Farm Payroll,
Retail Sales…) some doubts that the Federal Reserve will
introduce a new QE3 at the 12-13 September FOMC meeting
. Yesterday note that US Building permits jumped to a 4
year high . This morning, crude is trading
down.
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Bunker fuel prices gained a few dollars in
NWE yesterday. Cargo prices were up by approx. $4.5/mt
while 380cst delivered product gained approx.. halp as
much as prices were limited by a rather weak demand. In
Singapore fuel oil prices surged by approx. $11.0/mt
during the local Platts window. The latest Singapore
heavy residual inventory saw a massive draw of 3.5 mbbl
to 17.80 mbbl; a three week low. The delivered bunker
premiums were slightly up trading at around $6.50 above
cargo prices yesterday. The Singapore market is closed
this coming Monday for public holiday and will reopen on
Tuesday, so the next week will probably see a slow
start. Bunker swap papers gained as well both in
Singapore and Rotterdam. Front of the curve was stronger
yesterday with September prices gaining approx. $4.75/mt
both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. Gains were
slightly lower for the back end of the curve papers.
Both markets trade slightly higher this
morning.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
1.27 |
95.60 |
↓ |
95.61 |
95.87 |
96.20 |
97.08 |
96.84 |
96.22 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
0.65 |
115.27 |
↓ |
113.57 |
112.95 |
112.48 |
111.18 |
109.58 |
112.49 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
8.25 |
977.25 |
↑ |
978.00 |
975.33 |
971.50 |
963.03 |
949.56 |
947.51 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
4.50 |
647.00 |
↑ |
647.00 |
644.25 |
641.50 |
634.75 |
627.50 |
623.75 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
4.50 |
645.75 |
↑ |
641.75 |
639.00 |
636.50 |
630.25 |
623.25 |
619.75 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
6.75 |
708.50 |
↑ |
698.00 |
690.75 |
684.50 |
672.00 |
664.25 |
660.50 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
0.53 |
102.50 |
↓ |
101.00 |
100.50 |
100.00 |
97.75 |
96.50 |
97.00 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
11.00 |
671.25 |
↑ |
667.50 |
664.75 |
662.75 |
657.00 |
650.00 |
646.25 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
9.00 |
974.25 |
↑ |
978.25 |
975.25 |
972.25 |
962.25 |
949.25 |
947.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
2.00 |
655.25 |
↑ |
657.25 |
654.50 |
651.75 |
645.00 |
637.75 |
634.00 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
12.00 |
678.75 |
↑ |
677.75 |
675.00 |
673.00 |
667.75 |
660.75 |
657.00 |
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Retail Sales |
High |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
| PPI- Core |
Medium |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| Business Inventories |
Medium |
14-Aug |
10:00 AM |
June |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
| CPI- Core |
High |
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Aug |
5.0 |
7.4 |
-5.9 |
| Industrial Production |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
| Capacity Utilization |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
79.4% |
78.9% |
79.3% |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
11-Aug |
365K |
361K |
366K |
| Housing Starts |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
770K |
760K |
746K |
| Philadelphia Fed |
Medium |
16-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
-5.0 |
-12.9 |
-7.1 |
| Mich Sentiment |
High |
17-Aug |
9:55 AM |
Aug |
71.0 |
72.3 |
- |
| Leading Indicators |
Medium |
17-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
114.15 |
95.60 |
983.25 |
| Next |
114.95 |
95.75 |
987.00 |
| Strong |
116.00 |
99.50 |
991.50 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
112.70 |
94.25 |
976.75 |
| Next |
111.65 |
93.85 |
967.85 |
| Strong |
110.25 |
92.65 |
964.20 |
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The contracts we watch
pushed up hitting some targets higher yesterday.
However, they slid lower this morning. Brent moved below
MA5 and even MA8 this morning, which is a warning sign.
WTI and GO look a little better keeping above their s/t
MAs. It might be a corrective move of Brent, - which was
the strongest recently, - just to get inline with the
rest of the complex. We can’t rule out a possibility
that Brent might also pull the rest of the contracts
lower. Note, there is a completed RSI divergence on the
WTI chart. This is remains to be seen.
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Slource: OW Risk Management