A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Both crudes were traded within the recent
range yesterday settling with small gains. September WTI
futures settled @ $93.43/bbl, up by $0.70/bbl while the
September Brent futures gained $0.43/bbl to close @
$114.03/bbl. Energy markets had been supported by the
geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran as
diplomatic negotiations are underway. At the same time
prices are probably perceived high by the market
participants. The recent US macroeconomic was somehow
positive with the US July retails sales numbers
published 0.8% above expectations. The API reported a
massive 2.8 mbbl build of crude stocks while a draw in
gasoline inventories was larger that expected (-2.0 mbbl
against exp. -1.5 mbbl). The US Energy department weekly
report to be published today and the expectations are as
follows: crude -1.7 mbbl, distillates -0.2 mbbl,
gasoline -1.5 mbbl. This morning, Brent crude is trading
slightly up while WTI is marginally down.
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Bunker fuel prices did not change much in
NWE yesterday. Cargo prices were up by approx. $1.75/mt
while 380cst delivered product was assessed unchanged
against the previous day’s numbers. The market enjoys a
plentiful supply while some cargoes are booked to other
markets despite poor arbitrage economics. Demand for
bunkers was reported weak after a pretty active start of
the week. The Singapore fuel oil market prices gained
approx. $5.0/mt during the local Platts window. The
cargo premium improved slightly as the market saw a
stronger buying yesterday. The delivered bunker premium
remained around $6.00 - 7.00/mt above cargo prices
yesterday. Bunker swap papers gained a little both in
Singapore and Rotterdam. Front month papers were up by
approx. $1/mt in NWE and a few cents more in Asia.
Forward prices gained approx. twice as much shredding
another dollar from the backwardation discount. Calendar
2013 papers remain approx. $20/mt cheaper than the front
month. Both markets trade higher this
morning.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
0.70 |
92.73 |
↓ |
93.81 |
94.21 |
94.66 |
95.63 |
95.63 |
94.65 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
0.43 |
114.03 |
↑ |
111.87 |
111.22 |
110.76 |
109.64 |
108.36 |
110.77 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
0.25 |
957.50 |
↓ |
962.17 |
959.92 |
956.75 |
947.06 |
934.36 |
935.04 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
1.75 |
635.00 |
↑ |
637.50 |
634.50 |
631.75 |
626.00 |
619.50 |
616.00 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
2.00 |
634.25 |
↑ |
632.00 |
629.50 |
627.00 |
621.50 |
615.25 |
612.00 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
2.75 |
695.00 |
↑ |
686.50 |
679.00 |
673.00 |
661.00 |
654.00 |
650.50 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
0.50 |
100.25 |
↓ |
99.50 |
99.00 |
98.75 |
96.50 |
95.75 |
96.00 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
5.00 |
661.00 |
↑ |
657.25 |
655.25 |
653.75 |
648.50 |
642.00 |
638.75 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
1.75 |
954.25 |
↓ |
962.25 |
960.25 |
957.25 |
948.25 |
936.25 |
937.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
0.00 |
644.00 |
↑ |
647.75 |
644.75 |
642.00 |
636.25 |
629.75 |
626.25 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
5.00 |
667.00 |
↑ |
667.50 |
665.50 |
664.00 |
659.25 |
652.75 |
649.50 |
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Focus of
the day: Singapore |
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Singapore's onshore fuel oil stocks have
climbed 7.3% to a five-week high of 21.259 million
barrels. Demand from China was weak, falling to around
38,000 mts, 80% down from the week before; demand from
Japan was also less robust than expected, said sources.
Imports from Western countries were down week-on-week.
Despite the rise in onshore stocks, players still
expected product for the bunker market to tighten in the
second part of August in early September. They blamed a
lack of on-spec material.
Asia's fuel oil swaps
market weakened on Monday, with the soon-to-be-prompt
September/October inter-month spread easing, to its
lowest in one and a half weeks. According to sources,
cash premiums for both 180 cst and 380 cst inched up to
a two-session high. The 180 cst premium ended up 10
cents to $2.90/mt above Singapore spot quotes, while the
380 cst premium was 35 cents higher at $2.70/mt above
Singapore spot quotes. The bunker premium - the
difference between ex-wharf marine fuel and cargo prices
- was steady. Singapore reported improved bunker sales
in July backed by higher vessel arrivals during the
month. The port sold a total of 3.65 mt. of bunkers
during the month, up 0.34% from year-ago figures and
0.23% higher than June's level, according to preliminary
data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore
(MPA) on Monday. Traders said that sales in August are
likely to be lower as the market is short of
on-specification cargos arriving from the
West.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Retail Sales |
High |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
| PPI- Core |
Medium |
14-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
| Business Inventories |
Medium |
14-Aug |
10:00 AM |
June |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
| CPI- Core |
High |
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
0.2% |
- |
| Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Aug |
5.0 |
7.4 |
- |
| Industrial Production |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
1.0% |
0.4% |
- |
| Capacity Utilization |
Medium |
15-Aug |
9:15 AM |
Jul |
79.4% |
78.9% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
11-Aug |
365K |
361K |
- |
| Housing Starts |
Medium |
16-Aug |
8:30 AM |
Jul |
770K |
760K |
- |
| Philadelphia Fed |
Medium |
16-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
-5.0 |
-12.9 |
- |
| Mich Sentiment |
High |
17-Aug |
9:55 AM |
Aug |
71.0 |
72.3 |
- |
| Leading Indicators |
Medium |
17-Aug |
10:00 AM |
Jul |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
114.50 |
93.50 |
962.75 |
| Next |
115.10 |
94.10 |
967.25 |
| Strong |
116.00 |
94.25 |
976.70 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
113.60 |
93.15 |
959.05 |
| Next |
112.70 |
93.10 |
953.45 |
| Strong |
110.25 |
91.60 |
948.25 |
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The contracts we watch
pushed higher yesterday though managed to close with
marginal gains only. Technical picture remains roughly
unchanged from yesterday and slightly uncertain. The
contracts remain above s/t MAs maintaining targets above
the market in the agenda. However, an upward momentum
was clearly missing and indicators (RSI divergence for
instance) suggest we might slowdown or take a pause on a
way up. The nearby support is at s/t MAs on all charts
and they shall be watched as a move below would turn the
technical picture to more neutral. Brent crude remains
the strongest supported by fundamental factors but it
needs to show more potential to pull the rest of the
complex up. |
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Source: OW Risk Management