A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Yesterday Oil closed mixed despite a
strong start. June WTI contract closed at $93,98/bbl
down -$0,8 and Brent at $112,24/bbl up by $0,67. A
better German GDP at 0,5% for the 1st Quarter -5 times
higher than expected- confirmed that Germany rebounded
strongly for the last Quarter 2011 where it contracted.
But the optimism in the market was short lived as news
in the afternoon that Greece was calling for new
elections turned the mood completely. More and more
people are skeptical that Greece can be kept in the Euro
despite official reassurances yesterday from F. Hollande
and A. Merkel that they will do their utmost to keep
Greece in the Euro. Yesterday API Weekly Inventory
showed a built of more than 6,5 Mios bbl with a heavy
built in Cushing Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI
and draws in Distillates (-1,6 Mios bbl) and
Gasoline(-2,7 Mios bbl). Today the US DOE Weekly
Inventories will be released and expected as follows:
Crude Oil: 1,74 Mios/bbl , Distillates at -0,62 Mios
bbland Gasoline at -0,49 Mios bbl. In terms of economic
data we will look at the US Housing Starts, Building
Permits, Industrial Production and later in the day the
FOMC Minutes. This morning June Brent is down at 111,06
(-1,06%).
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The NWE fuel oil market once again saw
relatively quiet day. Delivered 380cst product in
Rotterdam was assessed up bay $7/mt supported by Fob
barges gaining more than $5/mt. Product avails for
prompt deliveries both for HSFO and LSFO remain tight.
The Singapore markets were assessed nearly $8/mt up
during the morning Platts window supported by crude
rebound yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps were up by
$6.5-5.5/mt at the front of the forward curve both for
Singapore and Rotterdam papers. Backend of the curve was
weaker posting only up to $1/mt gains. This morning both
markets are trading down.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Q312 |
Q412 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(0.80) |
93.98 |
↓ |
92.90 |
93.16 |
93.35 |
93.40 |
94.19 |
94.19 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
0.67 |
112.24 |
↓ |
109.76 |
109.11 |
108.50 |
108.55 |
107.17 |
107.17 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(1.75) |
932.25 |
↓ |
925.67 |
924.42 |
924.08 |
924.11 |
922.22 |
907.28 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
5.50 |
633.50 |
↓ |
628.25 |
625.75 |
623.00 |
623.00 |
614.00 |
594.25 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
5.50 |
637.00 |
↓ |
625.00 |
622.00 |
619.00 |
619.00 |
609.75 |
590.00 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
5.50 |
669.25 |
↓ |
663.50 |
661.75 |
658.75 |
658.75 |
647.75 |
627.75 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
0.75 |
99.85 |
↓ |
98.87 |
98.77 |
98.39 |
96.69 |
95.54 |
93.70 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
8.00 |
669.25 |
↓ |
659.50 |
655.00 |
651.00 |
651.00 |
640.50 |
619.25 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
0.50 |
937.25 |
↓ |
925.25 |
924.25 |
924.25 |
924.25 |
923.25 |
910.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
7.00 |
643.00 |
↓ |
638.50 |
636.00 |
633.25 |
633.25 |
624.25 |
604.50 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
8.00 |
677.00 |
↓ |
669.75 |
665.25 |
661.25 |
661.75 |
651.25 |
630.00 |
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Focus of
the day: Singapore |
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Onshore stocks of fuel oil in Singapore
climbed in the week ending May 9. Inventories stood at
19.871 million barrels, up by 642,000 barrels over the
seven days. Arrivals of western arbitrage cargoes were
running at about 787,000mt, bringing the total for May
volumes so far to more than 1.5 million mt. Exports from
India were also heavy at more than 215,000mt, sources
said. Regional demand was reported to be steady. Bunker
prices in Singapore were climbing on Tuesday after
almost a week of losses. The price of 380cst material
rose $10 to $674.50/mt while marine gas oil increased
$6.50 to $937/mt. Demand was mainly low and avails were
fine. Earliest deliveries were possible from May
24.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Retail Sales |
High |
15-May |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
0.2% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
| CPI |
High |
15-May |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-May |
8:30 AM |
May |
8.4 |
6.6 |
17.1 |
| Business Inventories |
Medium |
15-May |
10:00 AM |
Mar |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
| Housing Starts |
Medium |
16-May |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
680K |
654K |
- |
| Building Permits |
Medium |
16-May |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
730K |
747K |
- |
| Industrial Production |
Medium |
16-May |
9:15 AM |
Apr |
0.5% |
0.0% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
17-May |
8:30 AM |
12-May |
365K |
367K |
- |
| Philadelphia Fed |
Medium |
17-May |
10:00 AM |
May |
8.8 |
8.5 |
- |
| Leading Indicators |
Medium |
17-May |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.2% |
0.3% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
112.25 |
92.75 |
940.20 |
| Next |
112.60 |
94.80 |
943.25 |
| Strong |
113.60 |
95.70 |
944.45 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
110.35 |
90.95 |
919.25 |
| Next |
109.80 |
90.25 |
917.50 |
| Strong |
107.15 |
88.50 |
908.25 |
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Technical picture turned
to more bearish on energy charts. Brent did ok yesterday
though was not impressive. As the recent resistance
levels hold, the contract slid lower to test the support
instead. We are still trading within Feb 2012
consolidation and levels around 109.8 are very important
and they should be watched. WTI looked worrying
yesterday and it moved below the 2012 low this morning.
If it followed the rest of the complex we might be
looking to the next leg lower on all charts. Oscillators
are quite low though the momentum could be weak. GO
looks similar to the US crude somehow. Besides the RSI
divergence the contract looks rather weak. EUR gets
hammered against USD and this is the main source of the
weakness in the energy prices. Here we shall watch the
2012 low @ 1.2612, which is somehow remote yet, but
might come into the picture if the jeopardy in Europe
continues. If it’s broken down, we might be looking to
much lower levels on the energy charts.
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OW Risk
Management
OW Risk Management (OW RMS)
is the risk management arm of OW Bunker Group, one of
the world’s leading suppliers of marine fuels and
lubricants. OW RMS is pricing the derivatives traded by
the OW Bunker Group with approximate volume of 40
million metric tonnes per year. OW RMS offers to
shipping companies, local suppliers and other
counterparts a wide range of risk management products
and tools.
We are experts in fuel and
gasoil trading both as physically delivered products and
derivatives. Based on our long experience in risk
management and shipping we together with our clients
devise a hedging strategy that is right for them. RMS
can offer a tailored solution individually to our
clients by using a number of hedging tools. In that way
we meet the demand of the customers with various risk
profiles. |
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Source: OW Risk Management