U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have increased 1.8 million barrels in the week ended October 9, a survey of analysts showed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year (2010-14) average shows inventories rose 3.3 million barrels for the same reporting period, a steep rise as demand plunges amid the autumn turnaround season. Analysts expect the refinery utilization rate to show a drop of 0.4 percentage points to 87.1% of operable capacity.

If confirmed, that would represent a bigger slowdown in refinery operations compared with a year ago, when the refinery utilization rate equaled 88.1% of operable capacity for the same reporting period.

Another closely watched statistic will be EIA's estimate of weekly output from the Lower 48 states. Output was either down or flat for eight straight weeks until the week ended October 2, when EIA estimated an increase of 58,000 b/d to 8.685 million b/d.

Signs of further increases would raise the question of whether U. S. crude oil production has already bottomed in response to low oil prices.

In refinery news, Phillips 66's 139,000-b/d refining complex in Los Angeles, California, is under planned maintenance, a company spokesman said last week without providing details on the units involved.

Inventories of U.S. distillates are expected to have decreased 600,000 barrels for the latest reporting week. The EIA five-year average for the same reporting period shows inventories falling 1.7 million barrels.

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have decreased 1.5 million barrels last week, the analysts surveyed said. The EIA five-year average shows gasoline inventories falling 2.1 million barrels in the comparable reporting week.
Source: Platts