A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude prices extended their weakness at
the start of the week. Investors have been cautious
since multiple stimuli from Central banks. Yesterday the
latest German business confidence index fell to a two
year low. The Eurozone sovereign debt came back to the
forefront with different views between Germany and
France. The Euro weakened against the US dollar which
weighted pressure on Crude Oil. Despite the fact that
market sentiment remains weak, prices have fell
significantly recently which could start to provide some
attractive entry level again to hedgers. On the
Geopolitical front, the Israel Prime Minister in the US
is trying to convince President Obama to draw a red line
with Iran which will be a difficult task before the
election. The November WTI settled at $91.93/bbl, -$0.96
and Brent decreased -$1.61 to close $109.81/bbl. This
morning, crude is trading up.
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Bunker fuel oil prices in the NWE area
weakened at the start of the week. Both Delivered 380cst
product in Rotterdam and cargo prices posted app.$8/mt
losses. Lower prices kept buyers away from the market.
The Singapore Fuel Oil markets started the week slipping
$2.0 -1.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday.
The bunker demand was said to be slow and quiet. The
delivered bunker premiums weakened to around $5.0-6.0
above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost app.
$9/mt at the front and a few dollars less at the back
end of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and
Singapore papers. Viscosity spread between 180cst and
380cst papers narrowed notably for the last few days
trading at app.$13.50/mt at the front and slightly above
$11/mt for 2013 papers. Both markets are trading up this
morning.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(0.96) |
91.93 |
↑ |
92.64 |
92.96 |
93.34 |
93.94 |
93.82 |
92.98 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(1.61) |
109.81 |
↑ |
110.15 |
109.55 |
109.03 |
108.00 |
106.39 |
109.58 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(8.50) |
966.25 |
↑ |
970.42 |
963.00 |
955.92 |
942.69 |
926.47 |
926.49 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(8.50) |
626.25 |
↑ |
629.75 |
626.25 |
623.00 |
618.25 |
610.00 |
606.00 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(10.50) |
615.75 |
↑ |
621.50 |
619.75 |
617.00 |
613.25 |
606.00 |
602.00 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(6.75) |
675.00 |
↑ |
678.00 |
669.50 |
665.00 |
657.75 |
647.75 |
643.25 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(1.38) |
98.88 |
↑ |
98.44 |
97.74 |
96.89 |
96.44 |
95.19 |
94.60 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(0.75) |
655.00 |
↑ |
654.75 |
651.25 |
647.75 |
643.00 |
636.00 |
631.75 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
(9.75) |
963.00 |
↑ |
970.25 |
963.25 |
956.25 |
944.25 |
928.25 |
928.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
(8.00) |
635.00 |
↑ |
640.00 |
636.50 |
633.25 |
628.50 |
620.25 |
616.25 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(3.00) |
659.00 |
↑ |
665.00 |
661.50 |
658.00 |
653.75 |
645.25 |
641.00 |
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Just as ARA has recovered more or less
fully from the low availability seen the last month
which was creating higher premiums especially on RMK500
we once again see problems ahead. We are hearing rumors
that four or five VLCC's has been booked for the
arbitrage to the Far East and the Americas. A total of
2.000.000 MT will go out and once again create tension
for local supplies. We are expecting low availability on
RMK500 and also issues with RMG380. It is only high
sulfur products though so all 1% should be easy to find.
Pricewise we have seen big drops recent days so we are
not completely without length in the market. This will
bring back premiums to a plus.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Case-Shiller 20-city
Index |
Medium |
25-Sep |
9:00 AM |
Jul |
1.5% |
0.5% |
- |
| Consumer Confidence |
High |
25-Sep |
10:00 AM |
Sep |
62.0 |
60.6 |
- |
| New Home Sales |
Medium |
26-Sep |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
390K |
372K |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
27-Sep |
8:30 AM |
22-Sep |
380K |
382K |
- |
| Durable Orders |
High |
27-Sep |
8:30 AM |
Aug |
-6.5% |
4.1% |
- |
| GDP-3rd estimate |
High |
27-Sep |
8:30 AM |
Q2 |
1.7% |
1.7% |
- |
| Pending Home Sales |
Medium |
28-Sep |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
2.0% |
2.4% |
- |
| PCE Prices- Core |
High |
28-Sep |
8:30 AM |
Aug |
0.1% |
0.0% |
- |
| Chicago PMI |
Medium |
28-Sep |
9:45 AM |
Sep |
52.0 |
53.0 |
- |
| Michigan Sentiment-
Final |
Medium |
28-Sep |
9:55 AM |
Sep |
79.0 |
79.2 |
- |
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Source: OW Risk Management