A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude closed mixed yesterday after a
volatile trading day. The November WTI Oil contract
settled at $92.48/bbl, up $0.29 and Brent dipped $0.20
to $112.19/bbl. Crude prices were initially weakened by
disappointing China PMI data and Eurozone manufacturing
numbers however crept back up on latter trading session
on stronger US manufacturing data as the ISM’s US
factory index increased to 51.5 for September compared
to 49.6 for August. Spain is moving closer towards a
bailout from the ECB but is not impacting the market.
There was also lower liquidity in the market as several
major Asian markets like China and Korea were closed on
holiday yesterday. UK PMI construction data came out
this morning at 49.5 versus 49.8 expected. Later today
we will have Eurozone PPI data. This morning, Brent is
trading slightly down while WTI is up by
0,19.
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The Northwest European fuel oil markets
saw limited trading activity on Monday. Prices in the
area remained mostly unchanged from previous day
closing, with delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam
gaining app.$1/mt and cargo prices posting a few cents
loss. The Singapore Fuel Oil markets slipped around $2.0
during the morning window yesterday. The delivered
bunker premiums also slipped to around $7.0 above cargo
prices as several major markets in Asia were closed for
holiday. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted app.$1/mt gains at
the front and a dollar more at the backend of the
forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers.
This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Q113 |
Q213 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
0.29 |
92.48 |
↑ |
92.71 |
93.07 |
93.54 |
94.25 |
94.37 |
93.11 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(0.20) |
112.19 |
↓ |
111.57 |
110.88 |
110.26 |
109.15 |
107.57 |
110.90 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
1.75 |
982.50 |
↓ |
973.67 |
967.83 |
962.58 |
946.23 |
930.12 |
929.14 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(0.25) |
629.75 |
↑ |
629.50 |
626.75 |
624.00 |
619.50 |
611.50 |
607.75 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(1.00) |
625.00 |
↑ |
623.75 |
621.50 |
619.00 |
614.75 |
607.50 |
603.75 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
1.25 |
690.00 |
↑ |
684.50 |
673.00 |
667.50 |
659.50 |
649.00 |
644.75 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(0.50) |
98.55 |
↓ |
98.58 |
97.88 |
97.10 |
96.70 |
95.55 |
94.99 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(1.75) |
655.50 |
↑ |
655.00 |
651.50 |
649.00 |
643.75 |
635.50 |
631.50 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
0.25 |
979.25 |
↓ |
974.25 |
968.25 |
963.25 |
952.25 |
936.25 |
934.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
1.00 |
639.00 |
↑ |
639.75 |
637.00 |
634.25 |
629.75 |
621.75 |
618.00 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(4.00) |
663.25 |
↑ |
665.25 |
661.75 |
659.25 |
654.50 |
646.25 |
642.25 |
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The availability continues to be a problem
in the area so best practice would be to send the
requirements in the market in due time. The main
contributor for this situation is the arbitrage opening
to the Far East with more than two million tones going
out of Rotterdam in October alone. It is mainly high
sulfur products affected by the arbitrage situation. The
hilo spread has narrowed a bit due to this and is around
10% lower currently. The viscosity spread remains
unaffected.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| ISM Index |
High |
01-Oct |
10:00 AM |
Sep |
49.2 |
49.6 |
51.5 |
| Construction Spending |
Medium |
01-Oct |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
0.1% |
-0.9% |
-0.6% |
| ADP Employment Change |
Medium |
03-Oct |
8:15 AM |
Sep |
100K |
201K |
- |
| ISM Services |
Medium |
03-Oct |
10:00 AM |
Sep |
52.0 |
53.7 |
- |
| FOMC Minutes |
High |
03-Oct |
2:00 PM |
12-Sep |
- |
- |
- |
| Challenger Job Cuts |
Medium |
04-Oct |
7:30 AM |
Sep |
NA |
-36.9% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
04-Oct |
8:30 AM |
29-Sep |
370K |
359K |
- |
| Factory Orders |
Medium |
04-Oct |
10:00 AM |
Aug |
-5.5% |
2.8% |
- |
| Nonfarm Payrolls |
High |
05-Oct |
8:30 AM |
Sep |
120K |
96K |
- |
| Unemployment Rate |
High |
05-Oct |
8:30 AM |
Sep |
8.2% |
8.1% |
- |
| Consumer Credit |
Medium |
05-Oct |
3:00 PM |
Aug |
$5.0B |
-$3.3B |
- |
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Source: OW Risk Management