A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude Oil rally continued with 11 days gains in a row! Despite a weaker than expected US weekly job claims at 368k- up 38 k versus last week- the market in a typical bullish way ignored it.  Instead Market focused on a higher US December consumer spending up +0.2% and the Personal Income figure which surged to a 8 years high.  Chinese manufacturing expanded in January at 50,4 compared to 50,6 in December. Today The market will be looking at US nonfarm payroll and January unemployment rate which would provide the final price guidance for the week. The March WTI contract settled at  $97.49/bbl, down -$0.45 and  Brent closed at $115.55/bbl, up +$0.65. This morning crude prices are holding up gains.

Fueloil Specifics

The NWE fuel oil markets moved higher yesterday supported by stronger crude values. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam was assessed up by app.$3/mt while cargo prices were up more than $7/mt. both Antwerp and Rotterdam ports report tight lsfo avails for all next week. The Singapore fuel oil market extended its strength on the back of crude, up by another $5.0 during the morning Platts window. The 380cst cargo premiums maintained a second day premium from discount yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a +3.0 mbbl jump to 20.65 mbbl; a recent high. The delivered bunker premiums were $4.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Feb Mar Apr Q213 Q313 Q413 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,37 97,49 ↓ 97,49 97,97 98,39 98,64 98,51 97,37 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 0,54 115,55 ↑ 115,23 114,31 113,52 112,82 110,73 110,73 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 4,50 993,00 ↑ 987,83 979,58 970,33 964,58 953,75 944,86 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 7,75 630,00 ↑ 629,25 626,75 624,75 622,75 618,00 612,75 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 7,25 619,75 ↑ 621,25 620,25 618,75 617,75 613,25 608,25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 9,50 663,00 ↑ 665,25 664,75 662,75 660,75 654,50 644,75 3% no. 6 USGC WB 1,04 100,37 ↑ 99,80 99,05 98,80 98,55 97,55 96,80 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 4,75 643,75 ↑ 649,50 649,75 648,50 647,00 642,25 637,75 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 2,00 992,75 ↑ 988,25 980,25 970,25 966,25 953,25 944,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 3,00 629,25 ↑ 636,50 634,00 632,00 630,00 625,25 620,00 Physical Singapore 380 CST 4,50 648,00 ↑ 657,25 657,50 656,25 654,25 649,50 645,00

Focus of the day: Piraeus

Crude market was bullish this week and cargo prices in the MED were higher too; average CIF MED 3.5% was higher by $5.5 compared to last week. Product and barge availability was very good in Piraeus and LSFO 380 is once again available. A 48 hr strike by Seafers' Union in Piraeus is expected to end today. So far the strike has caused no disruption in supplies but vessels cannot work cargo inport so traffic in the port is reduced. We expect higher demand next week, as the market is still trading up this morning.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Durable Orders High 28-jan 8:30 AM Dec 2.5% 0.8% 4.6% Pending Home Sales Medium 28-jan 8:30 AM Dec 0.0% 1.7% -4.3% Case-Shiller 20-city Index Medium 29-jan 9:00 AM Nov 5.0% 4.3% 5.5% Consumer Confidence High 29-jan 10:00 AM Jan 61.0 65.1 58.6 ADP Employment Change Medium 30-jan 8:15 AM Jan 175K 215K 192K GDP- Adv. High 30-jan 8:30 AM Q4 0.2% 3.1% -0.1% FOMC Rate Decision High 30-jan 2:15 PM Jan 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Initial Claims Medium 31-jan 8:30 AM 26-jan 365K 330K 368K PCE Prices- Core Medium 31-jan 8:30 AM Dec 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Chicago PMI Medium 31-jan 9:45 AM Jan 50.0 48.9 55.6 Nonfarm Payrolls High 01-feb 8:30 AM Jan 195K 155K - Unemployment Rate High 01-feb 8:30 AM Jan 7.7% 7.8% - Michigan Sentiment- Final Medium 01-feb 9:55 AM Jan 70.5 71.3 - ISM Index High 01-feb 10:00 AM Jan 49.5 50.7 -

Source: OW Risk Management