A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude opened up flat in Asia yesterday and the selling pressure only came in after Asian Platt’s window which persisted into the US open. Stats were fairly neutral, with Cushing showing a small draw, though inventories still sit north of 51 MM barrels. Elsewhere in stats we saw total crude inventories build 2.6 MM bbls despite a drop in imports of 500kbd. The question remains how long the bulls can hold onto this length through seasonal crude builds, or hold until significant Cushing draws materialize. Volatility bounced higher in the morning during the selloff, but grinded back to unchanged, along with flat price, as the day dragged on. Technically we do seem to be trying to put in a short term top. Panicked consumer hedging or another flood of spec money has the potential to take us higher, and the stakes are certainly getting bigger. Today we await UK and German industrial production, ECB rate decision from Europe and weekly jobless claims from the US later in the afternoon. This morning crude is trading higher.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets saw limited trading activity yesterday. Delivered 380cst product prices in Rotterdam were merely changed from previous day and buyers were reluctant to fix their stems expecting better levels today. Asia fuel oil intermonth spreads extended gains on Wednesday, with the balance February/March contango at its narrowest in nearly one week amid expectations of lower Western supply this month.  However, demand remained lackluster with Chinese independent "teapot" refineries staying at the sidelines ahead of a week-long Lunar New Year holidays. Demand for marine fuel is also slow, with few shipowners willing to commit to a monthly term contract as February is a short month.  Delivered 380cst in Singapore was seen avg. around 637.00/mt. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Mar Apr May Q213 Q313 Q413 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0,02) 96,62 ↑ 97,35 97,80 98,18 98,13 98,35 97,54 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 0,21 116,73 ↑ 115,93 115,10 114,34 114,35 112,07 110,10 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 1,25 1011,75 ↑ 997,50 988,33 980,08 980,97 966,31 955,17 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 0,00 635,75 ↑ 634,25 632,50 631,00 631,00 626,25 621,25 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 1,25 625,00 ↑ 626,50 626,00 625,00 625,75 621,50 616,75 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 4,50 672,75 ↑ 673,75 672,25 670,75 670,75 664,50 655,00 3% no. 6 USGC WB 0,39 99,56 ↑ 100,05 99,80 99,30 99,30 98,55 97,80 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 5,50 654,00 ↑ 656,50 655,75 654,25 654,25 649,25 644,50 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (0,25) 1008,00 ↑ 998,25 989,25 980,25 982,25 965,25 955,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (2,00) 640,00 ↑ 641,50 639,75 638,25 638,25 633,50 628,50 Physical Singapore 380 CST 5,00 658,25 ↑ 664,25 663,50 662,00 662,00 657,00 652,25

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Factory Orders Medium 04-feb 10:00 AM Dec 3.0% 0.0% 1.8% ISM Services Medium 05-feb 10:00 AM Jan 55.5 56.1 55.2 MBA Mortgage Index Medium 06-feb 7:00 AM 02-feb NA -8.1% 3.4% Initial Claims Medium 07-feb 8:30 AM 02-feb 365K 368K - Continuing Claims Medium 07-feb 8:30 AM 26-jan 3200K 3198K - Consumer Credit Medium 07-feb 3:00 PM Dec $10.0B $16.0B - Trade Balance Medium 08-feb 8:30 AM Dec -$42.5B -$48.7B - Wholesale Inventories Medium 08-feb 10:00 AM Dec 0.7% 0.6% -

Source: OW Risk Management