The ongoing civil war and the rise of ISIS in Libya will carry on for years. Western powers are taking steps consistent with counter‐terrorism but not necessarily supportive of reconciliation or the establishment of a functioning government. This means Libya’s crude production will remain constrained by realities on the ground perhaps for years.

Libya is the latest front in the West’s campaign against the self‐proclaimed Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL). The recent U.S. air strikes, press reports of the French aircraft carrier moving to waters off of Libya, and the quickly rumored and just as quickly knocked‐down discussion of Italian troops going to Libya has only highlighted the ongoing chaos in that north African country. The civil war is now almost two years old, and the broader political chaos that resulted from Colonel Mohammar Gadaffi’s overthrow in 2011 has escalated with no end in sight. Unfortunately for those looking for stability any‐ time soon, the average civil war lasts twelve years. The broader political problems of legitimacy in the Arab world coupled with the rise of cross‐state political movements such as ISIS could cause any resolution to the Libyan political situation to stretch to the outer limits of the average range for the end to the civil war. This means that the Libyan government, regardless of which one, will remain highly limited in keeping back attacks by ISIS or other factions against Libyan oil facilities.

The United States and European countries are interested in restoring stability to Libya and helping to create a functioning government. However, this is likely to be a long‐term endeavor that is only partially amenable to outside political or military support. While there was, for a short while over the past two weeks, rumors that Italy might deploy a significant ground force into Libya, Prime Minister Renzi quashed that rumor and said that Italy would only deploy forces if and when there was a unitary government which asked for assistance. This means, for Rome at least, that military assistance would follow and sup‐ port a political reconciliation between the two main claimants to the mantle of legitimacy in Libya. While there are ongoing negotiations, or attempts at negotiations pushed by Washington and key European states, so far it does not look at all hopeful. In the meanwhile, the efforts of the West are focused on two issues. First is conducting strikes against ISIS leaders and key operatives who might be either planning on targeting Western targets or who might be consolidating control over parts of Libya. Second is keeping refugees from flowing into southern Europe (whether they are Libyans or Africans who are taking advantage of the lack of governance in Libya to launch from its shores).

News reports indicate that the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Italy all have Special Forces on the ground in Libya largely to support intelligence gathering and targeting ISIS cells or leaders. The recent U.S. airstrikes two weeks ago against ISIS leaders and a training camp in Libya may or may not reflect this small ground presence, but the attacks indicate that Washington is focusing on elements of the terrorist group that might be planning attacks on Western targets. The news information on the French aircraft carrier also hints that any strikes that Paris may carry out will be against those potentially plotting against French targets. All of this is to say that the level of effort and the focus of Western states in Libya, at least as regards ISIS, are on strict counterterrorism as opposed to creating conditions in which competing claimants to governing legitimacy can work out a compromise. In the meanwhile, the competing governing factions will have to defend themselves against not only other claimants to legitimacy but also ISIS and other smaller groups that have begun to attack Libyan oil production and export facilities with increasing regularity.

The recent attack in neighboring Tunisia also points to the problem of ISIS presence in Libya not only helping to continue the instability and political stalemate there but also spreading unrest further in Northern Africa.
Source: ESAI Energy LLC