U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have increased 2.5 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 17, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories rising 3.6 million barrels this reporting week.

Refineries tend to enter into maintenance when summer driving season concludes, causing stocks to accumulate through late October, stabilize for a few weeks, and then draw down as demand returns in mid-November.

U.S. crude oil stocks are well supplied by recent historical standards. Total U.S. crude oil inventory rose 8.9 million barrels the week ended October 10, which was the biggest weekly build since April. At 370.6 million barrels, crude oil stocks were 4.4% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).

Analysts expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to have fallen 0.25 percentage point to 87.85%. EIA data showed U.S. refinery runs at 15.3 million b/d for the reporting week ended October 10. The last time refineries processed more than 15 million b/d during the same reporting week was in October 2007.

GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN FALLING

U.S. gasoline stocks likely fell 1.7 million barrels the week ended October 17, according to analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories often decrease over this reporting week by 556,000 barrels.

At 205.7 million barrels for the reporting week ended October 10, U.S. gasoline stocks were 1.9% below the EIA five-year average, after a 4 million-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- were at 52.3 million barrels, which was 2.1% below the EIA five-year average.

Citgo shut the No. 1 fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit, as well as other units, at its 165,000 barrels per day (b/d) refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas, the week ended October 17.

FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.

Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, entered planned maintenance the week ended October 17.

The closed unit was a crude oil distillation unit and could also include a distillate-producing unit, with the outage lasting 30-50 days, sources said. One source said 1.6 million barrels of distillates production would be lost during maintenance.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have decreased 1.5 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 17. The EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks typically fall 1.3 million barrels this reporting week.

The amount of distillates carried by tankers departing the U.S. for Europe fell 20,000 metric tonnes (mt) the week ended October 17 to 180,000 mt, according to Platts cFlow ship-tracking software. Slowing exports means fewer barrels being drawn out of storage, which help stocks accumulate.
Source: Platts