Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data
Saturday, 18 October 2014 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose 8.9 million barrels to 370.6 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 10, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil data released Thursday. Normally published, the weekly data was delayed by one day due to the U.S. Columbus Day holiday on Monday.
Analysts surveyed Monday by Platts had been expecting a 2.5 million-barrel increase.
Current inventories are well-supplied by historical standards. At 370.6 million barrels, crude oil stocks were 4.4% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).
The build in crude oil stocks was largest on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), where inventories rose 5.3 million barrels to 190.4 million barrels, for a total 5.8% above the five-year average. This time last year, USGC stocks were 188.6 million barrels.
A drop in crude oil runs contributed to the USGC build. The amount of crude oil processed at USGC refineries fell 175,000 b/d to 7.9 million b/d, helping pull the region's refinery utilization run rate 1.3 percentage points lower to 88.9% of operable capacity.
Overall U.S. refinery utilization fell 1.2 percentage points to 88.1% of operable capacity, as crude oil runs declined 233,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 15.3 million b/d. Analysts had expected 0.54 percentage-point drop in the refinery rate.
Crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil contract -- were up 716,000 barrels to 19.6 million barrels.
The build in crude oil inventory was also aided by imports, which rose 28,000 b/d to 7.74 million b/d. It was the third week in a row imports increased.
The biggest jump was seen on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), where imports were up 377,000 b/d to just above 1 million b/d the week ended October 10. It was the first time imports have topped the 1 million b/d mark since September 2013.
In the U.S. Midwest, imports fell 432,000 b/d to 2.1 million b/d, reversing course after the previous week saw the region import a record-high 2.5 million b/d, EIA said.
Imports from Canada fell 181,000 b/d to 3.1 million b/d, the second highest total after setting a new high in the reporting week ended October 3. Most imports from Canada enter the U.S. via the Midwest.
Imports from Saudi Arabia increased 620,000 b/d to 1.2 million b/d, and imports from Mexico were up 19,000 b/d to 836,000 b/d.
USAC GASOLINE STOCKS FALL
Gasoline stocks decreased 4 million barrels to 52.3 million barrels, a larger-than-expected draw. Analysts had expected gasoline stocks to be 1.6 million barrels lower.
Stocks on the USAC -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract -- were down 2.6 million barrels.
At 52.3 million barrels, USAC gasoline stocks were at their lowest level since December 2012 and 2.1% below the five-year average.
Gasoline stocks would be higher, but the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) purchased 1 million barrels of gasoline from commercial inventories to put into a strategic reserve over the summer.
DOE established the reserve to protect against storms, like Hurricane Sandy, which wreaked havoc on fuel supplies in the U.S. Northeast region in 2012.
EIA data shows 700,000 barrels are stored in New Jersey, 200,000 barrels in Massachusetts, and 99,000 barrels in Maine. The terminals involved are privately owned.
Implied* gasoline demand was up 398,000 b/d to 9 million b/d the week ended October 10.
Midwest gasoline stocks were up 223,000 barrels to 49.5 million barrels. Current levels stand 6.1% above the five-year average.
USGC gasoline stocks fell 583,000 barrels to 71.8 million barrels.
DISTILLATE STOCKS DOWN
Diesel remains well-supplied on the USAC. Combined low- and ultra-low-sulfur diesel increased 268,000 barrels to 35.9 million barrels the week ended October 10, EIA data showed. The region's diesel stocks stand at a 31% surplus to the five-year average.
USGC inventories fell 1.4 million barrels to 30.8 million barrels, representing a 21.4% deficit to the five-year average.
Total distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels to 124.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected distillate stocks to fall 1.8 million barrels.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the US distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts