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Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data

Friday, 24 October 2014 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose 7.1 million barrels to 377.7 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 17, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil data.Analysts surveyed Monday by Platts had been expecting a 2.5 million-barrel increase.Current inventories are well-supplied by historical standards. At 377.7 million barrels, crude oil stocks were 5.33% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).

The build in crude oil stocks was largest on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), where inventories rose 5.4 million barrels to 195.7 million barrels. This time last year, USGC stocks were at 194.4 million barrels.

Crude oil runs at USGC refineries were unchanged at 7.9 million barrels per day (b/d). That said, the region's refinery utilization rate was lower on the week, falling 1.9 percentage points to 87%. Gross inputs, including alternative feedstocks, declined 175,000 b/d to 8 million b/d, pushing the refinery utilization rate lower despite flat crude oil runs.

Assisting the USGC's crude oil build were imports, which were up 192,000 b/d to 3.4 million b/d. Imports help stocks accumulate as more barrels are put into storage.

An increase in USGC crude oil production and greater movement of crude oil toward the USGC from other parts of the U.S. and Canada would also support the region's inventory build, though the EIA does not track these figures as part of its weekly report.

Crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil contract -- were 953,000 barrels higher at 20.6 million barrels.

By comparison, Cushing stocks were at 33.3 million barrels the same week last year, as levels have fallen significantly in 2014. Though, since late June, Cushing stocks have stabilized around 20 million barrels.

Overall U.S. refinery utilization fell 1.4 percentage points to 86.7% of operable capacity, as crude oil runs declined 113,000 b/d to 15.2 million. Analysts had expected the refinery rate to drop 0.25 percentage point.

Crude oil runs remain high by historical standards. The last time crude oil runs topped 15 million b/d in mid-October was 2007.

The build in crude oil inventory occurred despite total imports falling 263,000 b/d to 7.5 million b/d during the week ended October 17.

Imports from Canada were down 455,000 b/d to 2.6 million b/d. Saudi Arabia's exports to the U.S. declined 344,000 b/d to 885,000 b/d. And imports from Mexico increased 115,000 b/d to 951,000 b/d.

U.S. ATLANTIC COAST (USAC) GASOLINE STOCKS FALL

Gasoline stocks decreased 1.3 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline stocks to draw 1.7 million barrels.

Stocks on the USAC -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract -- were down 175,000 barrels. At 52.2 million barrels, USAC gasoline stocks were at their lowest level since December 2012 and 2.4% below the five-year average.

USGC gasoline stocks increased 947,000 barrels to 72.7 million barrels. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks drew 1.3 million barrels to 45.4 million barrels.

DISTILLATE STOCKS UP

Diesel remains well-supplied on the USAC. Combined low- and ultra-low-sulfur diesel increased 774,000 barrels to 36.647 million barrels the week ended October 17, EIA data showed. The region's diesel stocks stand at a 35% surplus to the EIA five-year average.

USGC inventories built by 2.3 million barrels to 33.1 million barrels, representing a 14.2% deficit to the five-year average.

Total U.S. distillate stocks increased 1 million barrels to 125.671 million barrels. Analysts had expected distillate stocks to fall 1.5 million barrels.
Source: Platts
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