U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have risen 2.4 million barrels for the reporting week ended September 27, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The expected build will likely be a product of sharply reduced crude oil runs at U.S. refineries and despite sustained lower crude oil imports.

The EIA five-year average shows crude oil stocks typically grow around 1 million barrels this time of year, with runs around 14.4 million barrels per day (b/d). Runs have already been cruising lately, averaging just under 16 million b/d since the beginning of July, and look likely to have dropped further.

"We have had enough refineries back out of the game unexpectedly last week to make a difference and this number could be more," Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry said. Larry expects crude oil stocks rose 2.25 million barrels, with run rates dropping 1.5 percentage points.

On average, analysts polled by Platts expect U.S. refinery utilization to fall 1.1 percentage points.

An issue with a thermal oxidizer in a sulfur recovery unit at BP-Husky's 160,000 b/d Toledo refinery in Oregon, Ohio, forced the facility to operate at reduced rates the week ended September 27, according to a company filing to regulators. And a fire in a crude oil unit at Northern Tier's 92,000 b/d St. Paul, Minnesota, refinery the week ended September 27 forced the facility to move up planned work and cut rates. The units are likely to be out for most of October, the company said.

Additional unplanned maintenance was conducted on a fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at Delek's 60,000 b/d Tyler, Texas, refinery the week ended September 27.

Meanwhile, Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, underwent planned maintenance the week ended September 27 after a leak was detected in an alkylation unit.

In continued maintenance, work on FCC unit 40 at Phillips 66/Cenovus' 146,000 b/d Borger, Texas, refinery will be extended into October, the company said last week. Units at the 600,000 b/d Saudi Aramco/Shell Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, failed startup on September 25.

"The one thing that could keep this from running away is another drop in imports," Larry said. U.S. crude oil imports at 7.93 million b/d are more than 800,000 b/d below the EIA five-year average.

With refineries likely cutting runs, U.S. product stocks likely also took a hit. U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 1.4 million barrels the week ended September 27, nearly double the week-over-week change in the EIA five-year average.

Ever the bull, Larry expects stocks to fall a "conservative" 2 million barrels.

"We think that we're going to see the demand bounce back up from the last week's dip, and that compounds the loss of production we're going to see this week," he said.

On average, U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 1.8 million barrels the week ended September 27, in line with the EIA five-year average.
Source: Platts