U.S. commercial crude oil stocks should show a decline of 1.5 million barrels for the reporting week ended September 20, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

Imports will likely remain on the low end as light sweet crude oil supply out of the Mediterranean continues to be tight, analysts said. However, lower crude oil runs at U.S. refineries will likely keep a larger decline in crude oil stocks in check.

Crude oil runs at U.S. refineries are expected to fall, with analysts expecting run rates will have dropped by 0.7 percentage point during the reporting week ended September 20. On a five-year average, EIA data shows U.S. crude oil runs falling by around 600,000 barrels per day (b/d) during the corresponding reporting week, likely due to seasonal maintenance.

Platts data shows Phillips 66's 239,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery in Westlake, Louisiana, began planned maintenance on a crude oil distillation unit as of September 18.

ExxonMobil's 502,500 b/d refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, has started planned maintenance from September 15 to upgrade a furnace at one of the facility's crude oil units and to replace two diesel hydrotreaters.

Additionally, Philadelphia Energy Solutions shut an alkylation unit at its 330,000 b/d refinery in Philadelphia starting September 17. Unplanned work on Delek's 60,000 b/d Tyler, Texas, refinery took a fluid catalytic cracker out of service for a period of time during the reporting week ended September 20, with flaring associated with the work lasting around seven hours during the night of September 19.

Meanwhile, operations at ExxonMobil's 149,500 b/d Torrance, California, refinery have returned to normal as of September 16 after running at reduced rates.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 1 million barrels during the reporting week ended September 20, despite the EIA five-year average showing stocks typically build by around 250,000 barrels during the reporting week.

The five-year average shows that the reporting week corresponding with the week ended September 13 is often the last of a series of builds prior to a prolonged period of drawdowns during the U.S. winter heating season.

However, increased exports have meant less distillate is accounted for in stockpiles, which should only increase the likelihood of a larger-than-expected decline.

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to show a decline of 1.5 million barrels for the reporting week ended September 20, about double the EIA five-year average.

Source: Platts