U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have risen 2.2 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 4, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The expected build is in line with seasonal norms, as the EIA five-year average shows U.S. crude oil stocks have typically grown around 2 million barrels during this reporting week.

Refinery issues likely padded crude oil inventories ahead of Tropical Storm Karen, although Karen-related impacts likely fall outside of the EIA's data reporting timeline, which has a Friday morning cut-off.

Analysts surveyed expect U.S. run rates to have fallen 1 percentage point.

Yet the growth in crude oil stocks could be partially offset by a reduction in imports, which could have dropped in the U.S. Gulf Coast ahead of Karen.

A fluid catalytic cracker at Tesoro's 120,000 barrels per day (b/d) Anacortes, Washington, refinery was shut the week ended October 4 due to unplanned maintenance.

On the Texas Gulf Coast, Motiva's 600,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery reported flaring on October 2 due to equipment failure at the facility's No. 4 vacuum pipe still; however, it was not clear that the event had any impact on production.

Total's 174,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery lost power for a period of time early during the week ended October 4, just a few days after a separate process unit upset.

Citi Futures Perspectives energy analyst Tim Evans expects crude oil imports to have fallen 300,000 b/d, although he expects crude oil stocks likely rose 2.5 million barrels.

Meanwhile, U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 1.9 million barrels the week ended October 4, on par with the EIA five-year average.

However, Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry said that distillate stocks should rise by 1 million barrels as U.S. export ability could have been hampered ahead of Karen, which would have backed up inventories.

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have risen 1.3 million barrels the week ended October 4, nearly double the EIA five-year average.

"With the government shutdown taking away a lot of drivers going into work last week, we're expecting demand to take a hit here," Larry said. It's quite possible we see the gasoline [demand] number at its lowest for some time, and that's saying a lot without being adjusted for weather."

Implied demand* for U.S. gasoline at 8.53 million b/d for the reporting week ended September 27 is the lowest since the week ended May 10, when it was 8.34 million b/d, EIA data shows.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts