•    Benchmark Brent and WTI oil futures eased in September and early October following plans for Syria to dispose of its chemical weapons and direct talks between Iran and the US at the UN General Assembly. The US government shutdown added downward pressure on prices. Brent was last trading at $110/bbl and WTI at $101.25/bbl.

•    Global oil supplies declined by 625 kb/d to 91.12 mb/d in September on steeply lower OPEC output. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2013 is forecast to average 1.1 mb/d, to 54.7 mb/d, rising to a near-record 1.7 mb/d next year.

•    OPEC crude supplies slipped below 30 mb/d for the first time in almost two years, led by steep drops in Libya and Iraq. Output fell by 645 kb/d to 29.99 mb/d despite Saudi output topping 10 mb/d for a third month running. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was raised by 100 kb/d to 29.6 mb/d for 4Q13.

•    Recent demand strength has raised the 2013 oil demand forecast by 90 kb/d, to 91.0 mb/d. Demand growth is projected at 1.0 mb/d (or 1.1%) for 2013, ramping up to 1.1 mb/d in 2014 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.

•    Exceptionally high US refinery crude runs in September lift the global throughput estimate for 3Q13 by 100 kb/d, to 77.3 mb/d. Despite steep contractions in Europe of 0.7 mb/d, 3Q13 throughputs jumped by 1.2 mb/d year-on-year, led by non-OECD Asia and the US. Growth is set to slow somewhat in 4Q13, to 0.9 mb/d.

•    August OECD industry oil inventories drew counter-seasonally by 7.8 mb to 2 660 mb. Stocks of refined products posted a small build and now cover 31.1 days of forward OECD demand, 0.4 day above end-July. Preliminary data for September point to a small counter-seasonal build in total OECD inventories of 1.7 mb.
Source: IEA