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Analysis of U.S. EIA data: U.S., Cushing crude oil stocks rise as refiners cut runs

Saturday, 19 October 2013 | 00:00
Total U.S. crude oil stocks, including stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract -- rose the week ended October 11 as refiners cut runs, according to American Petroleum Institute (API) and industry data released this week.

Cushing stocks rose 836,798 barrels the week ended October 11, according to Genscape data released Thursday.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was unable on Thursday morning to publish petroleum data for the week ended October 11. Agency staff was furloughed until Thursday on a lack of funding due to the partial government shutdown. The EIA said it would announce a schedule for resumption of the report as it becomes available.

In its report, Genscape noted that JP Energy was operating at around 25% of capacity, and Gavilon at 20% of capacity, while Blueknight was at 71% of capacity and Coffeyville at 81% of capacity.

Data is collected using infrared cameras, aerial diagnostics and other proprietary measurement techniques, Genscape said.

The Genscape data followed the release of the API’s weekly report late Wednesday. The API showed a 291,000 barrel stock build at Cushing, but at 32.88 million barrels, the API figure was 4.02 million barrels below Genscape’s number.

The API's Cushing storage number is close to the EIA’s most recent data. For the week ended October 4, the EIA showed Cushing stocks at 32.62 million barrels, having fallen 17 million barrels over 14 weeks.

The API reported a total U.S. crude oil stock build of 5.94 million barrels to 372.44 million barrels, which is well beyond analysts' expectations. Analysts surveyed Monday by Platts were expecting a 2.25 million-barrel build, with at least one analyst looking for a 1 million-barrel increase.

However, with the API's total U.S. crude oil stock figure for the week ended October 4 coming in 4 million barrels below the EIA's 370.54 million barrels, last week's large build could have reflected some "catching up" on the part of the API.

While the weekly API and EIA data do not always match, the general trends do, and both agencies have shown total U.S. crude oil stocks rising roughly since mid-September, as U.S. refiners have gone into maintenance, cutting crude oil runs.

U.S. crude oil runs dropped 160,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 14.8 million b/d the week ended October 11, helping push U.S. refinery utilization rates 0.8 percentage point lower to 86% of capacity, the API data showed.

The API also showed a rise in U.S. crude oil imports of 115,000 b/d to 8.4 million b/d. U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) imports jumped 258,000 b/d to 4.45 million b/d despite the temporary suspension of marine operations at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP).

LOOP, the largest point of entry for waterborne crude oil imports into the U.S., was shut October 4 for roughly two days because of Tropical Storm Karen.

U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production was also reduced for several days as a result of the storm. Gulf of Mexico oil production shut-ins peaked at 855,807 b/d October 5.

However, the API showed total U.S. production (excluding the U.S. West Coast) rising 38,000 b/d to 6.696 million b/d the week ended October 11.

USGC crude oil stocks rose 1.06 million barrels to 186.96 million barrels on the rise in imports, and as crude oil runs dropped 207,000 b/d.

Midwest crude oil stocks rose the most during the week ended October 11, up 4.16 million barrels to 100.96 million barrels, as imports jumped 196,000 b/d to 1.83 million b/d.

With refiners cutting crude oil runs, product stocks fell. U.S. distillate stocks fell 1.32 million barrels to 126.46 million barrels the week ended October 11, in line with analysts' expectations, the API data showed.

USGC ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks fell 713,000 barrels to 33.07 million barrels as regional production fell 57,000 b/d to 2.3 million b/d.

U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) ULSD stocks fell 1.07 million barrels to 28.63 million barrels. U.S. Midwest ULSD stocks fell 724,000 barrels.

U.S. gasoline stocks fell 2.21 million barrels to 216.11 million barrels the week ended October 11, led by a 1.12 million-barrel draw in USGC stocks.

Gasoline stocks on the USAC -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract -- fell 317,000 barrels to 56.74 million barrels the week ended October 11.
Source: Platts
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