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Daily Bunker Fuel and Oil Report

Friday, 08 June 2012 | 12:09
A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief  
 
Crude prices closed lower after a volatile trading session yesterday. The July WTI contract closed at $84.82/bbl, down by $0.20 while the July Brent futures lost $0.71 to settle at $99.93/bbl. Market was trading in a sideway manner awaiting the US Federal Reserve testimony. The surprise move by China to lower the one year borrowing rate by 0.25% lifted the market sentiment and a $2/bbl move up resulted. However, the markets were disappointed later during the day as the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not provide hints on any additional financial stimulus. The market reacted quite nervously and moved lower. It remains quite nervous today. An outcome and rhetoric of the next weeks OPEC meeting as well as the development of the discussion around the Iranian nuclear program and, - last but not least, - the widely awaited outcome of the elections in Greece would provide further guidance next week. This morning, crude is trading lower.
 
 
  Fueloil Specifics  
 
The NWE fuel oil prices remained largely unchanged yesterday. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam closed the day at the same levels as previous day while cargoes posted a loss of app.$1.5/mt. Demand was sluggish as many buyers decided to wait. Product avails remain tight in Rotterdam. The Singapore fuel oil markets were up +$4.0- 7.0/mt during the morning Platts window yesterday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a slight draw of -0.61 mbbl to 19.7 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were higher more than $9.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading down.
 
 
  Settlement & Indications (mid values)  
 
Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications
Product Change Last Dir. Jul Aug Sep Q312 Q412 2013
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0.20) 84.82 82.62 82.88 83.20 82.90 84.14 84.14
ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0.71) 99.93 97.05 96.77 96.54 96.78 96.23 96.23
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (6.75) 858.75 836.67 836.17 836.42 836.42 835.50 835.01
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (1.50) 573.50 555.75 553.00 550.50 553.00 546.00 536.25
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (2.75) 582.00 553.25 549.50 546.50 549.50 542.00 532.00
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (3.00) 657.50 593.75 590.25 586.75 590.25 580.75 570.00
3% no. 6 USGC WB (1.35) 88.80 86.83 86.58 86.30 85.77 85.07 84.17
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 6.75 595.25 583.75 580.50 577.50 580.50 572.75 561.25
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (7.75) 857.00 837.25 837.25 836.25 837.25 835.25 835.25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 0.00 586.00 566.00 563.25 560.75 563.25 556.25 546.50
Physical Singapore 380 CST 9.50 604.75 594.00 590.75 587.75 591.25 583.50 572.00
 
 
  Economy fundamentals this week  
 
Fundamental Indicators
Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual
Factory Orders Medium 04-Jun 10:00 AM Apr 0.1% -1.9% -0.6%
ISM Services Medium 05-Jun 10:00 AM May 53.0 53.5 53.7
Productivity- Rev. Medium 06-Jun 8:30 AM Q1 0.7% -0.5% -0.9%
Unit Labor Costs- Rev Medium 06-Jun 8:30 AM Q1 2.3% -2.0% 1.3%
Initial Claims Medium 07-Jun 8:30 AM 02-Jun 375K 383K 377K
Consumer Credit Medium 07-Jun 3:00 PM Apr $12.7B $21.4B $6.5B
Trade Balance Medium 08-Jun 8:30 AM Apr -$49.9B -$51.8B -
Wholesale Inventories Medium 08-Jun 10:00 AM Apr 0.5% 0.3% -
 
 
  Technical indicators  
 
Daily Charts
Resistance Brent WTI GO
Near 99.15 84.05 851.05
Next 99.95 84.70 857.05
Strong 102.50 87.05 876.50
Support Brent WTI GO
Near 95.40 81.15 826.05
Next 99.00 79.35 824.05
Strong 89.95 74.85 800.00
 
   
Technical picture looks worrying after yesterday's session. The contracts moved above MA8 and tested levels higher. However, having found a sufficient resistance they moved lower later during the session and closed below MA5. They continue trading down this morning though largely within June’s range. Indicators are mixed and we have RSI in divergence implying we should not move much lower. Key levels right now are the nearby support on the GO chart @ 843 and this month’s lows on all charts. We maintain a positive view while the contracts remain above those levels. Targets higher are on hold until we see a move above MA5s on the charts. An eventual move below would be bearish.


Source: OW Risk Management

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