A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude prices closed lower after a volatile
trading session yesterday. The July WTI contract closed
at $84.82/bbl, down by $0.20 while the July Brent
futures lost $0.71 to settle at $99.93/bbl. Market was
trading in a sideway manner awaiting the US Federal
Reserve testimony. The surprise move by China to lower
the one year borrowing rate by 0.25% lifted the market
sentiment and a $2/bbl move up resulted. However, the
markets were disappointed later during the day as the US
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not provide
hints on any additional financial stimulus. The market
reacted quite nervously and moved lower. It remains
quite nervous today. An outcome and rhetoric of the next
weeks OPEC meeting as well as the development of the
discussion around the Iranian nuclear program and, -
last but not least, - the widely awaited outcome of the
elections in Greece would provide further guidance next
week. This morning, crude is trading lower.
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The NWE fuel oil prices remained largely
unchanged yesterday. Delivered 380cst product in
Rotterdam closed the day at the same levels as previous
day while cargoes posted a loss of app.$1.5/mt. Demand
was sluggish as many buyers decided to wait. Product
avails remain tight in Rotterdam. The Singapore fuel oil
markets were up +$4.0- 7.0/mt during the morning Platts
window yesterday. The Singapore heavy residual inventory
saw a slight draw of -0.61 mbbl to 19.7 mbbl. The
delivered bunker premiums were higher more than $9.0
above cargo prices. This morning both markets are
trading down.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Q312 |
Q412 |
2013 |
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(0.20) |
84.82 |
↓ |
82.62 |
82.88 |
83.20 |
82.90 |
84.14 |
84.14 |
ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(0.71) |
99.93 |
↓ |
97.05 |
96.77 |
96.54 |
96.78 |
96.23 |
96.23 |
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(6.75) |
858.75 |
↓ |
836.67 |
836.17 |
836.42 |
836.42 |
835.50 |
835.01 |
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(1.50) |
573.50 |
↓ |
555.75 |
553.00 |
550.50 |
553.00 |
546.00 |
536.25 |
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(2.75) |
582.00 |
↓ |
553.25 |
549.50 |
546.50 |
549.50 |
542.00 |
532.00 |
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(3.00) |
657.50 |
↓ |
593.75 |
590.25 |
586.75 |
590.25 |
580.75 |
570.00 |
3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(1.35) |
88.80 |
↓ |
86.83 |
86.58 |
86.30 |
85.77 |
85.07 |
84.17 |
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
6.75 |
595.25 |
↓ |
583.75 |
580.50 |
577.50 |
580.50 |
572.75 |
561.25 |
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
(7.75) |
857.00 |
↓ |
837.25 |
837.25 |
836.25 |
837.25 |
835.25 |
835.25 |
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
0.00 |
586.00 |
↓ |
566.00 |
563.25 |
560.75 |
563.25 |
556.25 |
546.50 |
Physical Singapore 380 CST |
9.50 |
604.75 |
↓ |
594.00 |
590.75 |
587.75 |
591.25 |
583.50 |
572.00 |
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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Fundamental
Indicators |
Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
Factory Orders |
Medium |
04-Jun |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.1% |
-1.9% |
-0.6% |
ISM Services |
Medium |
05-Jun |
10:00 AM |
May |
53.0 |
53.5 |
53.7 |
Productivity- Rev. |
Medium |
06-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Q1 |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
-0.9% |
Unit Labor Costs- Rev |
Medium |
06-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Q1 |
2.3% |
-2.0% |
1.3% |
Initial Claims |
Medium |
07-Jun |
8:30 AM |
02-Jun |
375K |
383K |
377K |
Consumer Credit |
Medium |
07-Jun |
3:00 PM |
Apr |
$12.7B |
$21.4B |
$6.5B |
Trade Balance |
Medium |
08-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
-$49.9B |
-$51.8B |
- |
Wholesale Inventories |
Medium |
08-Jun |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.5% |
0.3% |
- |
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Daily Charts |
Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
Near |
99.15 |
84.05 |
851.05 |
Next |
99.95 |
84.70 |
857.05 |
Strong |
102.50 |
87.05 |
876.50 |
Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
Near |
95.40 |
81.15 |
826.05 |
Next |
99.00 |
79.35 |
824.05 |
Strong |
89.95 |
74.85 |
800.00 |
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Technical picture looks
worrying after yesterday's session. The contracts moved
above MA8 and tested levels higher. However, having
found a sufficient resistance they moved lower later
during the session and closed below MA5. They continue
trading down this morning though largely within June’s
range. Indicators are mixed and we have RSI in
divergence implying we should not move much lower. Key
levels right now are the nearby support on the GO chart
@ 843 and this month’s lows on all charts. We maintain a
positive view while the contracts remain above those
levels. Targets higher are on hold until we see a move
above MA5s on the charts. An eventual move below would
be bearish. |
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Source: OW Risk Management