A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude prices closed with another loss last Friday, cutting approx.
$3/bbl of the price. The July WTI contract closed at $83.23/bbl down by $3.30
while the July Brent futures fell by $3.44 finishing well below the $100 mark at
$98.43. The already nervous market suffered from a lack of confidence about the
situation in Europe, especially in Greece and Spain. The sentiment turned
bleaker as the US labor market was reported to be dismal. The US nonfarm payroll
fell while the US unemployment rate rose to 8.2%, the first time after a year of
decline. Recent economic news had also been leaning to the bearish sides in
general, which is reflected now in the market mood. The slowdown in the
manufacturing sectors from Europe, US and China further dampened market
sentiment as it could potentially impact the energy demand. The market badly
needs some positive new from Europe about the Greek and Spanish debt issues or
maybe some supportive rhetoric from OPEC. This morning, crude is trading down
again.
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The Northwest European fuel oil market closed the week with double
digit losses following collapsing crude. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam
was assessed nearly $26/mt down versus previous day close while cargo prices
lost nearly $25/mt. Demand was very thin in the area as only urgent inquiries
were fixed. However, product avails for prompt deliveries remain tight in
Rotterdam. The Singapore fuel oil markets fell by more than -$18.5/mt during the
morning Platts window last Friday as crude plummeted. The delivered bunker
premiums were lower at around $6.25 above cargo prices as crude continued to
soften after the window. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost nearly $24/mt at the front
of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. Backend was a few
dollars stronger. This morning both markets are trading down this morning.
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Settlement & Indications (mid
values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's Values |
Forward Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Q312 |
Q412 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(3.30) |
83.23 |
↓ |
81.59 |
81.90 |
82.19 |
82.18 |
83.15 |
83.15 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(3.44) |
98.43 |
↓ |
95.97 |
95.61 |
95.34 |
95.36 |
94.91 |
94.91 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(23.00) |
847.75 |
↓ |
827.50 |
825.33 |
824.50 |
825.03 |
827.53 |
825.22 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(0.25) |
563.50 |
↓ |
549.75 |
545.75 |
543.25 |
543.25 |
536.00 |
526.00 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(0.25) |
569.50 |
↓ |
547.50 |
542.00 |
539.00 |
539.00 |
531.50 |
521.25 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(1.00) |
657.50 |
↓ |
581.00 |
579.00 |
576.75 |
576.50 |
567.25 |
556.75 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(1.50) |
88.45 |
↓ |
86.55 |
86.15 |
85.85 |
85.10 |
84.45 |
83.66 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(19.25) |
606.25 |
↓ |
577.00 |
573.75 |
570.75 |
571.00 |
563.25 |
551.50 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
(24.00) |
847.25 |
↓ |
828.25 |
826.25 |
825.25 |
826.25 |
827.25 |
825.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
(26.00) |
572.00 |
↓ |
560.00 |
556.00 |
553.50 |
553.50 |
546.25 |
536.25 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(20.50) |
611.50 |
↓ |
587.25 |
584.00 |
581.00 |
581.75 |
574.00 |
562.25 |
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Economy fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Factory Orders |
Medium |
04-Jun |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.1% |
-1.9% |
- |
| ISM Services |
Medium |
05-Jun |
10:00 AM |
May |
53.0 |
53.5 |
- |
| Productivity- Rev. |
Medium |
06-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Q1 |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
- |
| Unit Labor Costs- Rev |
Medium |
06-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Q1 |
2.3% |
-2.0% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
07-Jun |
8:30 AM |
02-Jun |
375K |
383K |
- |
| Consumer Credit |
Medium |
07-Jun |
3:00 PM |
Apr |
$12.7B |
$21.4B |
- |
| Trade Balance |
Medium |
08-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
-$49.9B |
-$51.8B |
- |
| Wholesale Inventories |
Medium |
08-Jun |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.5% |
0.3% |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
101.50 |
86.10 |
889.70 |
| Next |
103.50 |
87.75 |
899.15 |
| Strong |
105.05 |
88.10 |
902.80 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
94.85 |
79.35 |
861.90 |
| Next |
90.00 |
78.65 |
849.25 |
| Strong |
89.95 |
74.85 |
826.05 |
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Markets give fewer positive hints this morning
compared to the last Friday. Interestingly, the energy contracts slid lower last
Friday despite a degree of improvement seen on EUR/USD and this is a worrying
signal. However, s/t MAs remain far away from the price action and all
indicators are largely in oversold. It does not necessarily mean we should turn
up immediately, as they can stay in this area for a while. Markets came down
strongly and are below 2011 range so supports here might be relatively weak.
However, we will be looking for positive signals in the technical picture,
especially if the technical picture on the EUR/USD chart continues to improve.
Stochastic does not support the price action either.
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Source: OW Risk Management