A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Markets are in a “await and see” mode. For
the third day in a row Oil is trading in the same range,
with low volatility. The July WTI contract closed at
$82.62/bbl, down -$0.70 and Brent at $97.13/bbl, down
only -$0.01. Yesterday, the US Inventory Report was
supportive with draws across the board and notably in
product stockpile. OPEC is meeting today and no surprise
is expected with production levels to be kept unchanged.
Moody downgraded Spain credit rating. Italy and Spanish
Bonds are trading respectively 6,20% and 6,78%- very
close to the dangerous 7% level where full bail out
plans were triggered for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Market is waiting for the outcome of the Greek election
this coming Sunday, and is pretty nervous about it. This
morning, crude is trading down.
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The NWE fuel oil prices firmed yesterday
following higher crude prices and continuous tight
product avails. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam
was assessed app.$6/mt up, while cargoes posted $4/mt
gains. Some operators in Hamburg reported tight avails
for prompt deliveries. The Singapore fuel oil markets
rose app.$6.75 during the morning Platts window
yesterday tracking the crude movement. Strong buying
interests narrowed the Asian Fuel Oil crack. The
delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $6.5 above
cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted up
to $2.5/mt gains at the front of the forward curve both
for Rotterdam and Singapore papers while backend was
around one dollar weaker. This morning both markets are
trading down.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Q312 |
Q412 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(0.70) |
82.62 |
↓ |
82.93 |
83.21 |
83.53 |
83.22 |
84.19 |
84.19 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(0.01) |
97.13 |
↓ |
96.41 |
96.22 |
96.05 |
96.23 |
95.94 |
95.94 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(3.75) |
847.50 |
↓ |
839.00 |
835.67 |
834.75 |
836.47 |
835.00 |
834.32 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
4.00 |
576.75 |
↓ |
563.75 |
559.25 |
555.75 |
559.50 |
550.25 |
540.75 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
1.25 |
582.50 |
↓ |
562.25 |
556.50 |
552.25 |
557.00 |
546.75 |
537.75 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(2.25) |
657.50 |
↓ |
592.25 |
589.75 |
586.50 |
589.50 |
580.50 |
573.00 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(0.92) |
87.58 |
↓ |
88.25 |
87.77 |
87.34 |
86.59 |
85.84 |
85.05 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
6.75 |
599.00 |
↓ |
592.50 |
587.00 |
582.75 |
586.75 |
577.25 |
567.00 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
2.00 |
854.00 |
↓ |
839.25 |
836.25 |
835.25 |
837.25 |
834.25 |
834.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
6.00 |
587.00 |
↓ |
574.00 |
569.50 |
566.00 |
569.75 |
560.50 |
552.00 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
5.00 |
605.00 |
↓ |
602.75 |
597.25 |
593.00 |
597.50 |
588.00 |
577.75 |
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Focus of
the day: Gibraltar |
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The three ports in the Strait are running
smoothly this morning after a rather quiet start of the
week, with slow demand and relatively high premiums. The
HI/LO spread keeps narrowing and avails are good even
for prompt deliveries. Algeciras keeps competing with
Gibraltar, making it cheaper to bunker at the Western
side of the bay these days. The Med market is trading
down this morning.
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| Export Prices |
Medium |
12-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
NA |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
| Import Prices |
Medium |
12-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
NA |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
| Treasury Budget |
Medium |
12-Jun |
2:00 PM |
May |
NA |
-$57.6B |
-$124.6B |
| Retail Sales |
High |
13-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
-0.3% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
| PPI |
Medium |
13-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| Business Inventories |
Medium |
13-Jun |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
14-Jun |
8:30 AM |
09-Jun |
375K |
377K |
- |
| CPI |
High |
14-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
0.1% |
0.2% |
- |
| Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Jun |
10.0 |
17.1 |
- |
| Industrial Production |
Medium |
15-Jun |
9:15 AM |
May |
0.1% |
1.1% |
- |
| Capacity Utilization |
Medium |
15-Jun |
9:15 AM |
May |
79.2% |
79.2% |
- |
| Michigan Sentiment |
High |
15-Jun |
9:55 AM |
Jun |
77.0 |
79.3 |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
97.85 |
83.15 |
848.05 |
| Next |
98.60 |
83.75 |
851.55 |
| Strong |
99.85 |
84.75 |
859.05 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
96.45 |
82.00 |
839.75 |
| Next |
95.35 |
81.15 |
826.05 |
| Strong |
94.85 |
79.35 |
824.05 |
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All contracts we follow
continued testing the recent supports but found them
strong so far. Brent was supported by 97.1 and has June
low @ 95.4 below as well. WTI has been testing its
recent low @ 81.15 but seems to be quite comfortable
above 82/bbl. GO is testing $840 though it has its own
monthly low @ 826. Indicators largely remain oversold
and RSI has formed divergence on all charts. Technical
picture suggests a turnaround from the current levels.
Bulls might look for entry levels. However, we dot feel
sufficient for a quick potential move and would like to
wait for a convincing move above S/T MAs as a
confirmation of our scenario. A degree of help from
EUR/USD might be nice to have, though the currencies
will probably remain nervous and might be volatile on
fundamental factors, and this might impact the
dollar-denominated commodities. |
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Source: OW Risk Management