A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude prices jumped yesterday although it was mainly a Brent story due to Libyan Oil production disruption. This morning Goldman Sachs reduced its OPEC Crude output forecast by 190 000 b/d due to Libya and maintained its $110/bbl near term target. The December WTI futures closed at $98.68/bbl, rising by +$0.83 and Brent surged more than +$2.68 to $109.61/bbl. Investors are also looking much forward to the Federal’s Reserve meeting this week for the last insights in their monetary policy. China money market rates stabilized after the central bank resumes its open market operations on Tuesday. Today is busy in terms of US economic data with the September Retail Sales, Schiller 20 City Home Price Index, the October Consumer Confidence and Business Inventories to provide further guidance. This morning, crude is trading slightly down.

Fueloil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil prices rebounded on the start of the week following stronger Brent. Delivered 380cst product in Antwerp gained app.$4/mt and nearly $6/mt in Rotterdam. Suppliers reported tight lsfo avails for prompt deliveries. The Singapore fuel oil markets rose app.$3.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking the firmer crude values. The Asian fuel oil cracks came off as fuel oil values lags behind the crude prices. The delivered bunker premiums strengthen to +$11.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained app. $7.00- 6.50/mt along the forward curve both for Singapore and Rotterdam papers. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Nov Dec Jan Q114 Q214 2014 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,83 98,68 ↓ 98,32 98,39 98,01 97,41 95,52 94,64 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 2,68 109,61 ↓ 108,70 108,12 107,56 107,01 105,41 104,58 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 16,00 925,75 ↑ 923,58 919,33 916,92 915,17 906,61 904,44 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 7,50 580,00 ↑ 580,75 578,25 580,75 580,75 579,25 577,50 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 6,25 575,75 ↑ 575,75 572,75 574,50 573,50 572,25 571,25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 6,00 590,25 ↑ 592,25 597,25 600,50 601,00 601,75 599,00 3% no. 6 USGC WB 2,00 91,45 ↑ 91,50 91,00 91,00 90,75 90,25 90,00 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 3,00 605,00 ↑ 604,75 599,50 597,75 598,00 596,75 596,00 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 18,25 927,00 ↓ 925,25 920,25 918,25 916,25 906,25 904,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 6,00 585,25 ↑ 586,00 583,50 586,00 585,50 583,50 581,75 Physical Singapore 380 CST 4,50 616,00 ↑ 610,00 604,75 603,00 603,25 602,00 601,25

Focus of the day: ARA

It is hard not to repeat ourselves as the week looked almost the same as the previous one. Even though crude provided some interesting movements, cracks counteracted almost perfectly, leaving little to no room for speculation. The only thing worth mentioning is RMK discounts that are firming. It looks we are on our way to more healthy levels at last. The low sulphur premium is printed around 15 dollars, but in reality more premium is being paid to have it delivered on board. It is advised to order your low sulphur supply timely. The discounts for gasoil seem to have reached new lows. No signal that this will change soon. Notification periods for the different grades; five days for high sulphur enquiries and five working days for low sulphur enquiries.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Industrial Production Medium 28-Oct 9:15 AM Sep 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Pending Home Sales Medium 28-Oct 10:00 AM Sep -2.0% -1.6% -5.6% Retail Sales High 29-Oct 8:30 AM Sep -0.2% 0.2% - Core PPI Medium 29-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.0% - Case-Shiller 20-city Index Medium 29-Oct 9:00 AM Aug 12.5% 12.0% - Business Inventories Medium 29-Oct 10:00 AM Aug 0.3% 0.4% - Consumer Confidence High 29-Oct 10:00 AM Oct 72.0 79.7 - ADP Employment Change Medium 30-Oct 8:15 AM Oct 125K 166K - GDP- Adv. Medium 30-Oct 8:30 AM Q3 NA 2.5% - Core CPI High 30-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.1% - FOMC Rate Decision High 30-Oct 2:15 PM Oct 0.25% 0.25% - Initial Claims Medium 31-Oct 8:30 AM 26-okt 335K 350K - Chicago PMI Medium 31-Oct 9:45 AM Oct 52.0 55.7 - ISM Index High 1-Nov 10:00 AM Oct 54.5 56.2 -

Source: OW Risk Management