A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Friday, crude prices bottomed out after three straight days of sell off.  A weaker than expected US consumer confidence spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus in place for a couple of more months. US equities were firm and the US dollar weak. The US September Durable Goods orders overall number rose above expectation at 3.7% but without Transport it is a third negative month, challenging the strong ISM number we have seen. The December WTI futures closed at $97.85/bbl, up +$0.74 and Brent slipped -$0.06 to $106.93/bbl. This week, the market will turn back to economic numbers with a very heavy schedule: the US FOMC Meeting on Wednesday and the Unemployment on Friday will be the highlights. Today, the September Industrial production figures will be published.  This morning, crude is trading nearly 1.0% up for Brent and flat for WTI.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets closed last week with lower prices and increasing buying interest. Delivered 380cst product in Antwerp lost app.$2/mt and double that in Rotterdam. However, prices for prompt deliveries remained on the higher side supported by tight product avails. Most suppliers were quoting only for the next month. The Singapore fuel oil markets fell between $6.5 to $2.5 during the Asian Platts window last Friday. The Singapore heavy residual stockpile reported a slight dip to -0.54 mbbl to 20.59 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $9.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost some $2.0-1.5/mt along the curve both for Singapore and Rotterdam papers. Visco spread strengthened significantly and closed at $10.22/mt on Friday. November is trading at app. $12.50-13.00 while forward prices remain stable trading in a range of $7.25-7.75/mt for cal14. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Nov Dec Jan Q114 Q214 2014 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,74 97,85 ↑ 98,01 98,01 97,64 97,01 95,22 94,21 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 0,06 106,93 ↑ 107,52 107,02 106,50 105,99 104,64 103,96 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (1,75) 909,75 ↑ 916,08 912,08 910,00 909,86 903,33 901,83 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (5,50) 572,50 ↑ 576,50 573,75 576,25 576,25 574,75 572,75 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (3,50) 569,50 ↑ 572,00 568,25 571,00 588,00 568,00 566,75 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 0,00 584,00 ↑ 587,00 592,00 595,25 596,00 597,00 593,75 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0,10) 90,20 ↑ 91,35 90,80 90,30 90,05 89,75 89,50 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (6,00) 603,00 ↑ 600,75 595,25 593,75 593,75 592,75 591,50 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (3,50) 907,75 ↑ 917,25 913,25 911,25 909,25 901,25 900,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (4,00) 579,75 ↑ 581,75 579,00 581,50 581,00 579,00 577,00 Physical Singapore 380 CST (5,00) 611,50 ↑ 606,00 600,50 599,00 599,00 598,00 596,75

Focus of the day: Gibraltar

Week 44 is having a smooth start in the Gibraltar Strait, with only one supplier slightly behind schedule. The weather forecast for this week is good. There is also good products availability, however prompt requirements could be an issue due to the high number of vessels scheduled to arrive in the area within the next 48hrs. Bunker premiums already seen this morning are quite competitive. CIF Med 3.5% is trading only some 7 usd/mt above FOB Barges Rotterdam and the HILO is currently around to 19 usd/mt in the Med, with the CIF Med 1% premium over FOB NWE 1% at 15 usd/mt. The Med market is trading up this morning.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Industrial Production Medium 28-Oct 9:15 AM Sep 0.3% 0.4% - Pending Home Sales Medium 28-Oct 10:00 AM Sep -2.0% -1.6% - Retail Sales High 29-Oct 8:30 AM Sep -0.2% 0.2% - Core PPI Medium 29-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.0% - Case-Shiller 20-city Index Medium 29-Oct 9:00 AM Aug 12.5% 12.0% - Business Inventories Medium 29-Oct 10:00 AM Aug 0.3% 0.4% - Consumer Confidence High 29-Oct 10:00 AM Oct 72.0 79.7 - ADP Employment Change Medium 30-Oct 8:15 AM Oct 125K 166K - GDP- Adv. Medium 30-Oct 8:30 AM Q3 NA 2.5% - Core CPI High 30-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.1% - FOMC Rate Decision High 30-Oct 2:15 PM Oct 0.25% 0.25% - Initial Claims Medium 31-Oct 8:30 AM 26-okt 335K 350K - Chicago PMI Medium 31-Oct 9:45 AM Oct 52.0 55.7 - ISM Index High 1-Nov 10:00 AM Oct 54.5 56.2 -

Source: OW Risk Management