The North European economy is showing signs of remaining in the doldrums with further declining volumes into the first half of 2016. At best we are facing a mild recession, at worst something more severe as capacity continues to sharply outpace demand.

The North Europe Global Port model of economic fundamental indicators all point to a lack of growth and many of them to a further decline in economic activity, all of which will reduce the volume of trade.

For the coming six months the forecast projects a 4.1 per cent decrease in total moves across the North Range, compared to a 5.2 per cent decrease over the same period of the past year. Loaded incoming containers are projected to decrease by 4.5 per cent in the coming six months versus the previous six months, compared to a six per cent drop in the previous year.

2015, total imports to Europe are forecast to decrease by 3.2 per cent, with at least a four per cent slide anticipated in North Europe. The six North Range ports are projected to post a 4.4 per cent decrease in incoming volumes, while loaded outgoing volumes are forecast to post a 3.1 per cent slide. The total handled volume is forecast to dip by 2.3 per cent.

Only the Port of Antwerp has had a decent year and will likely maintain strength in 2016 as it is not exposed to the collapse in the Russian trade volumes that has so plagued its northern competitors.

Looking forward, Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates warns: “It is also probably due to the fact that globalization has reached an equilibrium whereby there are only a few industries still shifting sourcing
and output to Asia, leaving the volume growth to follow consumption growth, added to this is the uncertainty still felt by the European consumers due to economic, political and security issues, all of which drive down demand. We do not see recovery in volumes nor in freight rates.”

Dr. Maatsch of the ISL notes that for January to November 2015, the year-on-year growth in major world ports is negative. The December value is unlikely to change this much and with reports of reduced economic activity in China we are not optimistic in the short term.

The North Europe Global Port Tracker is published by Hackett Associates and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL).

The Global Port Tracker: North Europe Trade Outlook provides a six-month projection plus an additional two quarter forecast of inbound and outbound container movements in TEUs for the region’s six major container ports – Le Havre, Zeebrugge, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven and Hamburg.

Hackett Associates LLC provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions.
Source: Hackett Associates LLC