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Platts Analysis of US EIA Data: U.S. Gulf Coast Crude Oil Stocks Hit Record High; Cushing, Okla. Stocks Drop

Friday, 28 March 2014 | 00:00
U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil stocks hit record highs during the week ended March 21st, reaching 200.3 million barrels, as growing pipeline capacity from Cushing, Oklahoma, sent barrels southward, according to data released this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Cushing, Oklahoma is the delivery point for New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contracts.

Weekly EIA data, which dates back to January 1990, shows a previous record high for Gulf Coast crude stocks of 198.69 million barrels, for the week ending April 24, 2009.

The 6 million-barrel week-over-week build for the reporting week that ended March 21, puts Gulf Coast stocks more than 11% above the EIA five-year average.

Total U.S. crude oil stocks rose 6.6 million barrels to 382.5 million barrels for the latest reporting week, exceeding analyst expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel build.

Gulf Coast crude stocks have risen by more than 38 million barrels since the January 17, 2014 reporting week. Last week's climb in stocks marked the 10th straight week of builds for the region, even as area refiners upped utilization rates to 88% of capacity from 85.4% the week prior.

Utilization rates in the Gulf Coast region are 1.2 percentage points higher than a year-ago.

Overall U.S. refiner capacity utilization rates were up 0.4 percentage points at 86% in the latest reporting week. The increase in Gulf Coast rates, along with a 3.6 percentage point rise in West Coast rates, was mostly offset by a 5.2 percentage point drop in utilization rates in the Midwest.

Platts data shows ExxonMobil's 365,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) Beaumont, Texas refinery resumed normal operations Friday after a compressor upset in a fluid catalytic cracker March 20.

Philadelphia Energy Solutions restarted a fluid catalytic cracker and an alkylate unit last week at its 330,000-b/d Philadelphia refinery.

Shell's 165,000-b/d Martinez, California refinery restarted March 15.

CUSHING CRUDE STOCKS FALL FOR EIGHTH WEEK IN A ROW

While Gulf Coast crude stocks have swelled, stocks at Cushing have fallen about 13 million barrels since mid-January.

Last week, Cushing inventories fell 1.3 million barrels to 28.5 million barrels, putting stocks at a 26.3% deficit to the EIA five-year average.

Analysts have said that since the startup of TransCanada's southern Keystone pipeline link –a 485-mile (780 km) crude line beginning at Cushing and extending south to Nederland, Texas – outgoing crude pipeline capacity has exceeded inbound supplies at Cushing. That has led to the surplus capacity heading to the Gulf Coast.

A 308,000-b/d increase in U.S. crude oil imports also added to the build in total crude inventories. However, imports In the Gulf Coast fell 56,000 b/d to 3.39 million b/d.

A drop of 781,000 b/d in imports from Saudi Arabia to 1.135 million b/d was offset by increases in imports from other countries including Mexico, Venezuela, Iraq and Angola.

U.S. GASOLINE INVENTORIES TUMBLE

U.S. gasoline stocks fell a more-than-expected 5.1 million barrels last week to 217.2 million barrels, according to the EIA data. Analysts were anticipating a 1.8 million-barrel draw.

Implied demand for finished gasoline rose 490,000 b/d to 9 million b/d, which is roughly 600,000 b/d above the same week in 2013. The increase puts demand above 9 million b/d for the first time since the December 20, 2013 reporting week.

Gasoline stocks on the Atlantic Coast -- home of the New York delivery point for NYMEX RBOB futures contracts -- rose 553,000 barrels to 57.06 million barrels last week, but were still below the EIA five-year average of 58.24 million barrels for that week.

In the Midwest, gasoline stocks dipped to a 10.4% deficit to the EIA five-year average for the week ended March 21st. In mid-December, inventories were at a 1.72% surplus to the five-year average.

U.S. gasoline imports jumped 207,000 b/d to 628,000 b/d -- putting the imports four-week moving average at 444,000 b/d, down about 20% from the year-ago period.

U.S. distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels to 112.4 million barrels, narrowing a deficit to the five-year average to 19.4% last week. At the end of January, the deficit was 23.3%. Analysts had expected a 1 million-barrel draw.

U.S. Atlantic Coast combined low- and ultra-low sulfur diesel stocks of 23.12 million barrels for the week that ended Friday were about 8.05% below the EIA five-year average. The deficit was greater than 34% just six weeks earlier. Stocks rose 2.1 million barrels week over week.
Source: Platts
  
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