The crucial pre-winter shoulder months of August, September and October will determine the level of storage fullness at which countries start the winter. ICIS estimates that Japan and South Korea bought a combined 5.5million tonnes of spot LNG during this period last year. China alone also bought 1.5 times that combined amount in 2021. However, China is unlikely to be vying for much spot in the coming months due to the high prices and slowing economy.

ICIS Analytics forecast that Japan and South Korea combined are looking to secure slightly more than 5.0m tonnes of spot in August, September and October this year – assuming that there is not much flexibility or uplift available from their long-term contract suppliers. The spot amount is less than what was bought last year, but it is still nearly 80 cargoes of spot LNG just before winter.

To secure these cargoes during the current gas shortage happening in Europe, the North Asia spot price – the ICIS EAX – will need to close the gap with the ICIS TTF European gas price.
KOGAS will buy more spot pre-winter this year, compared to 2021, due to much higher summer storage withdrawal and a 90% storage requirement
Source: ICIS by Alex Siow, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/08/11/10794278/storage-analysis-how-much-spot-lng-will-japan-and-south-korea-need-this-winter/