U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have increased 2.1 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 3, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories typically rise this reporting week, increasing 2.39 million barrels.

U.S. crude oil stocks are well-supplied by recent historical standards. The crude oil inventory was 356.64 million barrels the week ended September 26, which was 1.26% above the EIA five-year average (2009-2013).

Analysts expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to have fallen 0.38 percentage point to 89.42%. EIA data showed U.S. refinery runs at 15.69 million barrels per day (b/d) for the reporting week ended September 26.

GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN FALLING

U.S. gasoline stocks likely were 1.1 million barrels lower the week ended October 3, according to analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories often decrease during this reporting week, falling 846,000 barrels.

At 208.49 million barrels for the reporting week ended September 26, U.S. gasoline stocks were 1.97% below the five-year average of EIA data.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- were at 53.55 million barrels the reporting week ending September 26, which is 1.15% below the EIA five-year average, after a 1.9 million-barrel draw.

Fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs) returning from maintenance the week ended October 3 included units at Marathon Petroleum's 84,000 b/d Texas City refinery, as well as Total's 174,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery.

Also in Texas, Phillips 66 shut the No. 40 FCC at the 146,000 b/d Borger refinery for a month-long maintenance period, while Petrobras shut its 106,000 b/d Pasadena refinery, which includes a 56,000 b/d FCC.

FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.

A rally in gasoline imports could be expected soon, as a rush of fixing the week ended October 3 drove Europe-U.S. freight rates to their highest since March.

Clean tanker rates on a U.K. Continent- USAC route, basis 37,000 metric tonnes (mt), averaged over Worldscale (w)* 132 the week ended October 3, up from a 30-day moving average of just under w110.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have decreased 800,000 barrels the week ended October 3. The EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks typically fall 1.94 million barrels this reporting week.

The amount of distillates carried by vessels departing the U.S. for Europe fell 130,000 mt the week ended October 3 to 490,000 mt, according to Platts cFlow ship-tracking software.

*Worldscale freight rates are used to price the cost of shipping crude or refined products from one port to another by tanker.
Source: Platts