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Analysis of US EIA data: U.S. crude oil stocks jumped 5.9 million barrels last week; runs dropped

Friday, 21 March 2014 | 00:00
U.S. crude oil stocks rose a greater-than-expected 5.9 million barrels the week ended March 14 as refiners continued to ease back run rates due to seasonal maintenance, according to data released this week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).A stocks total of 375.90 million barrels for the reporting week ended March 14 is 5.64% above the EIA five-year average, up from a 4.14% surplus the week ended March 7. However, the current surplus to the five-year average is less than half the 13.31% surplus reported the week ended November 22, 2013.

Analysts polled by Platts were anticipating a 2.6 million-barrel build in crude oil stocks and a 0.6 percentage-point drop in refinery utilization.

U.S. refiners cut run rates by 0.4 percentage point to 85.6% of capacity the week ended March 14, EIA data showed.

The drop in runs was mostly concentrated along the U.S. West Coast, where the rate fell 2.8 percentage points to 82.5% of capacity, and in the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), where runs fell 1 percentage point to 85.4% of capacity.

U.S. crude oil runs of 14.95 million barrels per day (b/d) were the lowest since the week ended October 18 -- the end of the fall maintenance season -- when they were 14.85 million b/d.

In planned maintenance, Suncor started a three-week turnaround at its 98,000 b/d refinery in Commerce City, Colorado.

Meanwhile, Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, restarted an unidentified unit the week ended March 14 following planned maintenance.

Platts reporting also showed a unit at Shell's 165,000 b/d Martinez, California, refinery was shut the week ended March 14 after a hydrogen leak was detected.

ExxonMobil's 238,000 b/d Joliet, Illinois, refinery suffered a fire the week ended March 14, although it was unclear if production was affected.

CUSHING STOCKS BELOW 30 MILLION BARRELS

At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, crude oil stocks fell to 29.8 million barrels the week ended March 14 -- a week-over-week slide of 989,000 barrels -- expanding its deficit to the five-year average to 22.2%. This seventh consecutive weekly draw puts Cushing stocks below the 30 million-barrel mark for the first time since January 20, 2012.

On the USGC, however, crude oil stocks jumped 4.8 million barrels to 194.3 million barrels, putting it at a 9.89% surplus to the five-year average.

"This just shows how the logistical bottleneck that prevented the flow of barrels from Cushing to the Gulf of Mexico seems to be resolved for now," said Torbjorn Kjus, an oil market analyst at DNB Bank.

Based on this, Kjus said: "It is not very strange that the [Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude oil] price is under pressure, which again leads to very strong refinery throughput versus last year."

LLS St. James was assessed by Platts at $104.28 per barrel (/b) Tuesday, up from $101.52/b on Monday, but down from $109.17/b a month ago.

"Weaker domestic U.S. crudes provide very strong refinery margins, of course,” Kjus said. “Refinery throughput is hence, up a massive 930,000 b/d versus the same week last year, while imports are down and production of crude is up."

Crude oil imports at 7.309 million b/d the week ended March 14 were slightly lower than the previous week’s 7.311 million b/d. U.S. crude oil production in the lower 48 states was up 27,000 b/d at 7.689 million b/d the week ended March 14.

U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS FALL AGAIN

Stockpiles of U.S. gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels to 222.3 million barrels the week ended March 14, EIA data showed, which kept stocks at a slight deficit to the five-year average.

The draw was near analysts’ expectations of a 1.6 million-barrel decline.

U.S. gasoline production fell to 9.23 million b/d the week ended March 14 from 9.36 million b/d the week ended March 7. Still, production is ahead of year-ago levels of 8.56 million b/d.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) -- home of the New York delivery point for NYMEX RBOB -- fell 1.85 million barrels to 56.51 million barrels. USAC stocks are now at a 4.7% deficit to the EIA five-year average.

U.S. distillate stocks fell 3.1 million barrels to 110.8 million barrels, outpacing expectations of a 900,000-barrel draw.

Implied demand* for the fuel rose 462,000 b/d to 4.16 million b/d.

USAC combined low and ultra-low sulfur diesel stocks of 21.02 million barrels the week ended March 14 were about 17.3% below the EIA five-year average -- about half the deficit of more than 34% just five weeks ago. Stocks rose 300,000 barrels from the week ended March 7.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts
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