U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen 2.5 million barrels during the reporting week ended December 12, a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts showed.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories falling 5.6 million barrels this reporting week, as winter demand picks up and barrels are drawn out of storage.

U.S. crude oil stocks are at healthy levels compared with recent historical standards. At 381 million barrels on December 5, crude oil stocks were 7.3% above the EIA five-year average for the same reporting week.

Analysts expect the U.S. refinery utilization rate to have declined 0.30 percentage point to 95.1% of operable capacity.

Crude oil runs have risen steeply the last few weeks. It is common for refineries to ramp up production this time of year, but overall levels are high by comparison to historical levels.

At 16.6 million barrels per day (b/d), crude oil runs for the week ended December 5 were a record high and pushed the refinery utilization rate to 95.4% of operable capacity, nearly 3 percentage points higher than the same time last year.

Without much room left for further growth, analysts are estimating refineries backed off slightly, lowering the refinery utilization rate in the process.

GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN BUILDING

Analysts believe combined U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks will rise 3 million barrels the week ended December 12. If so, that would mean another week of building refined products stocks, which is an indication that demand is unable to keep pace with soaring output from refineries.

For the week ended December 5, the combined U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks built 13.78 million barrels.

U.S. gasoline stocks likely increased 2.3 million barrels, according to the analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories rising by 964,000 barrels in the comparable reporting week.

At 217 million barrels the week ended December 5, U.S. gasoline stocks were 0.1% below the EIA five-year average.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- totaled 52.4 million barrels, 5.2% below the EIA five-year average.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have increased 670,000 barrels during the week ended December 12.

With stockpiles building, especially on the U.S. Gulf Coast, exports provide an additional outlet for supplies. U.S. weekly distillate exports to Europe rose to around 440,000 metric tonnes (mt) the week ended December 12, up from 380,000 mt in the prior week, according to Platts ship-tracking software cFlow.

Exports to Europe have been limited by a sharp increase in clean freight costs, according to traders.
Source: Platts