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ENGINE: East of Suez Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook

Thursday, 28 December 2023 | 01:00

Singapore

In recent weeks, Singapore’s bunker market has encountered challenges, particularly because of some suppliers struggling to meet tight delivery schedules. This predicament has worsened the shortage of VLSFO in the port, causing lead times to extend significantly from just 7-9 days last week to a range of 7-15 days presently. For HSFO and LSMGO, lead times of 5-8 days and 3-5 days are required, respectively.

According to Enterprise Singapore, the city-state’s residual fuel oil stocks have seen a notable increase of 7% so far this month compared to November. Net fuel oil imports in the port have decreased by 1% so far in December. Both imports and exports have experienced an upward trend this month, with fuel oil imports rising by 5% and exports surging by 19%.
Conversely, middle distillate stocks in the port have witnessed a significant decline of 14% over the month.

China, East Asia and Oceania

The limited availability of VLSFO in Zhoushan has pushed the grade’s prices higher. Due to the tight supply of the grade, some suppliers in the Chinese port are being cautious. They are refraining from committing to delivery dates and opting to quote for firm inquiries exclusively. However, the availability of LSMGO and HSFO remains robust, with recommended lead times of 3-6 days.

In the northern Chinese port of Dalian, VLSFO and LSMGO supply has tightened, while all three grades face supply pressure in the nearby Tianjin region, with deliveries subject to inquiry. Qingdao experiences tight prompt availability of VLSFO and LSMGO, while HSFO supply is subject to firm inquiry.

Southern Chinese ports of Shanghai and Xiamen, grapple with tight availability for VLSFO and LSMGO, while HSFO availability is tight in Shanghai. In Guangzhou, both VLSFO and LSMGO supply is tight, and Fuzhou sees both grades subject to inquiry, contrasting with good supply in Yangpu.

Hong Kong maintains good availability for all three grades, with consistent 5-7 day lead times.

Turning to South Korea, VLSFO availability remains tight in the country’s western ports, requiring almost eleven days of lead time, while only one supplier can supply the grade in the southern ports. LSMGO requires ten days of lead time across South Korea. In western South Korea, HSFO is under pressure, forcing most suppliers to only respond to firm inquiries. Meanwhile, the southern part of the country has normal availability with 6-8 day lead times.

However, potential disruptions loom as high waves are predicted intermittently in South Korean ports of Ulsan, Onsan, Busan, Daesan, Taean and Yeosu.

Adverse weather conditions may impact bunkering operations in Subic Bay (Philippines) between 26-19 December and in Tauranga (New Zealand) on 1 January.

South Asia

In Kandla, located on India’s northwest coast, the availability of VLSFO and LSMGO remains steady, with prompt supply available. However, other Indian ports, including Visakhapatnam, Tuticorin, Haldia, and Paradip, are experiencing supply pressure for both grades. The earliest deliveries for VLSFO and LSMGO in these ports stretch to the first week of January.

Meanwhile, VLSFO and LSMGO availability is tight at the ports of Mumbai and Cochin. Additionally, there’s a forecast of adverse weather conditions in the Sri Lankan port of Colombo on Wednesday, raising concerns about potential impacts on bunkering deliveries in that region.

Middle East

Despite the Red Sea crisis, the Middle Eastern bunker market has remained relatively stable. However, concerns have escalated again after the United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a new incident 50 nautical miles west of the Yemeni port of Al-Hudayah on Tuesday. Although Maersk’s recent announcement to resume Suez Canal transits is a positive development, the region’s ongoing uncertainties are being exacerbated by renewed incidents.

Prompt demand for all grades continues to remain tight in the UAE port of Fujairah, with around seven days recommended.
Source: ENGINE, By Tuhin Roy, https://engine.online/news

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