U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have risen 2.5 million barrels the week ended April 4, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday. Analysts surveyed expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to have fallen 0.3 percentage point amid a surge in refinery maintenance. Platts data shows at least five U.S. refineries entered turnarounds the week ended April 4.

Valero started a three-day turnaround of a fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at its 168,000 barrels per day (b/d) McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas, and Phillips 66 shut an FCC for maintenance at its 247,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas.

On the U.S. West Coast, Tesoro shut a gasoline unit for maintenance at its 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California. Additionally, ExxonMobil began maintenance at its 145,500 b/d Torrance, California, refinery.

In unplanned outages, Alon was forced to cut runs at its 70,000 b/d Big Spring, Texas, refinery the week ended April 4 after it shut an FCC due to a tube rupture.

Offsetting this, other refineries returned units to production. Suncor ended a three-week maintenance period at its 98,000 b/d Commerce City, Colorado, refinery. And Marathon restarted an FCC -- following a power outage -- at its 80,000 b/d Texas City, Texas, refinery.

Meanwhile, analysts largely expect U.S. crude oil imports to have rebounded following issues from an oil spill which temporarily blocked the Houston Ship Channel the week ended February 28.

Citi Futures Perspectives energy analyst Tim Evan expects imports to have rallied 600,000 b/d the week ended April 4.

Imports on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) likely received a boost. Piers data shows a Philadelphia-area refinery imported almost 1 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil the week ended April 4.

Imports from Nigeria have been trending lower over the last few months, coming in at a record-low 51,000 b/d in January, EIA monthly data shows, down from 440,000 b/d in January 2013.

EIA weekly data shows the U.S. imported 171,000 b/d of Nigerian crude oil for the reporting week ended March 28. This is up from zero the week prior. In fact, EIA data shows imports of Nigerian crude oil were zero over four separate weeks going back to mid-December.

PRODUCT EXPORTS TO BRAZIL ACTIVE

In products, analysts surveyed expect U.S. gasoline stocks to have fallen 1.3 million barrels the week ended April 4.

All eyes will likely be on USAC gasoline stocks. At 55.12 million barrels for the week ended March 28, USAC gasoline stocks are almost 4.6% below the EIA five-year average. By that measure, USAC stocks have not been this tight since the week ended February 15, 2013. That week USAC stocks at 59.55 million barrels were 5.37% below the EIA five-year average.

Analysts expect U.S. distillate stocks to have fallen 800,000 barrels the week ended April 4, in line with the EIA five-year average. That said, stocks at 112.96 million barrels the week ended March 28 were 18.4% below the five-year average.

U.S. product exports to Europe appeared to be minimal. Platts cFlow vessel-tracking software shows the Energy Panther left the USAC on April 1, laden with clean product and headed for Amsterdam. The Houyoshi Express II left the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) the week ended April 4, partly laden with gasoil, headed for Amsterdam.

Exports to Brazil, however, appeared to be busy. The Overseas Kimolos looked to have left the USGC, laden with clean product, en route to Madeira, Brazil. Headed to the same port were the Sextans, partly laden with what looks to be diesel, and the FPMC 21, partly laden with a clean product. The High Seas, partly laden with clean product, appeared to have left the USGC, headed for the Brazilian port of Suape, according to cFlow.
Source: Platts