The release of import statistics for June by Australia’s major LNG buyers makes it possible to compare FY 2021 with the previous year.
Australia supplied a record 72.4 Mt of LNG to North Asia – China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan- in FY 2021, up from 71.4 MT the previous financial year. The total landed value of this LNG is estimated to be A$38.9 billion, down from A$49.9 billion the previous year reflecting the fall in oil prices to which most Asian LNG is indexed.
Australia exported a record 30.7 Mt to China, worth an estimated A$15.6 billion. The previous record was 28.6 Mt in FY 2020. Deliveries from Australia increased by 7.3%, notwithstanding trade tensions. China has now overtaken Japan as Australia’s largest LNG customer. (Figure 1).
There were also record Australian exports to Taiwan of 5.5 Mt (previous record 4.6 Mt in FY 2020).
Australian exports to China of 30.7 Mt were much higher than disclosed contracts of 19.4 Mt. The projects with China contracts are NWS, Gorgon, QCLNG and APLNG. All except Gorgon supplied above their contracts. Also, every other Australian LNG project supplied cargoes to Chinese buyers, even without explicit China contracts. The additional supplies are from portfolio volumes and spot sales. For example, QCLNG has China contracts of 3.6 Mtpa but supplied 6.9 Mt to China in FY 2021, with the additional volumes coming from Shell’s portfolio contracts. GLNG has no China contracts but delivered 1.1 Mt to China, most likely from Petronas’s portfolio.
Australia also exports more to Taiwan than its disclosed contracts, 5.5 Mt in FY 202, compared with contracts of 0.9 Mtpa.
Japan is an opposite case, with contracts of 31.3 Mt but Australian deliveries in FY 2021 of 28.3 Mt. Some of the difference would have actually been delivered to China.
Despite the impacts of COVID-19, the four major North Asian LNG buyers all increased their LNG imports in FY 2021, most significantly in the case of China, with an increase in imports of 19.6%. China is expected to soon become the world’s largest LNG buyer, replacing Japan. Chinese volumes were close to Japan but did not overtake them in FY 2021.
China imported a total of 76.1 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with 63.6 Mt for the previous 12 months, a rise of 19.6% year-on-year (yoy). Import prices were down 15% averaging US$6.87/MMBtu compared with US$8.12/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. Imports from Australia were up 7.3% to 30.7 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with28.6 Mt in the previous 12 months. Average Australian prices fell 20% to US$6.66/MMBtu from US$8.30/MMBtu for the previous year. The total landed value of Australian LNG imports in FY 2021 was US$10.6 billion (A$15.6 billion), down from US$12.3 billion (A$18.8 billion) the year before.
Japan imported a total of 77.0 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with 75.1 Mt for the previous 12 months, an increase of 2.4% yoy. Import prices were down 22% averaging US$7.38/MMBtu compared with US$9.41/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. Imports from Australia were down 4.5% to 28.3 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with 29.7 Mt in the previous 12 months. Average Australian prices fell 22% in line with total average prices, falling to US$7.38/MMBtu from US$9.41/MMBtu for the previous year. The total landed value of Australian LNG imports in FY 2021 was US$10.9 billion (A$16.0 billion), down from US$14.5 billion (A$22.1 billion) the year before.
Korea imported a total of 42.2 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with 41.9 Mt in the previous 12 months, a rise of 0.7% yoy. Import prices were down 14% averaging US$7.31/MMBtu compared with US$9.08/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. Australia supplied 7.9 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 at an average price of US$7.48/MMBtu compared with 8.6 Mt at an average price of US$9.08/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. The total landed value of Australian LNG imports in FY 2021 was US$3.1 billion (A$4.6 billion), down from US$4.1 billion (A$6.3 billion) the year before.
Taiwan imported a total of 18.8 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 compared with 17.6 Mt in the previous 12 months, a rise of 6.8% yoy. Import prices were down 14% averaging US$6.50/MMBtu compared with US$7.70/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. Australia supplied 5.5 Mt for the 12 months to June 2021 at an average price of US$6.50/MMBtu compared with 4.6 Mt at an average price of US$7.70/MMBtu for the previous 12 months. The total landed value of Australian LNG imports in FY 2021 was US$1.9 billion (A$2.8 billion), up from US$1.8 billion (A$2.7 billion) the year before.
Source: Energy Quest