Since the beginning of 2022, the import of crude oil into the EU has undergone significant changes. Until the end of January 2022, before the war broke out, imports from various origins remained relatively stable, with Russia being the primary source of crude oil imports.
From the last quarter of 2021 to January 2022, imports from Russia ranged from 39 657 thousand barrels to 49 698 thousand barrels, accounting for 24% to 31% of total imports. The United States was the EU’s second-largest supplier of crude oil, providing between 19 115 thousand barrels and 20 751 thousand barrels, representing 10% to 13% of total crude oil imports. Norway and Kazakhstan also supplied similar amounts of crude oil, ranging from 8% to 14% of total imports, while imports from Iraq were slightly lower, ranging between 7% to 12%. Imports from Libya and the United Kingdom accounted for around 5% of total imports.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had a significant impact on the import of crude oil into the EU. The situation was very unstable from February to April, with large imports from Russia in February and April (63 859 thousand barrels and 58 976 thousand barrels, respectively, representing 33% and 30% of total imports) and low imports in March (31 820 thousand barrels, representing 18% of total imports).
In May 2022, imports from Russia decreased to 24 162 thousand barrels (12% of total imports) and remained relatively stable until September 2022. From September onwards, imports decreased gradually, reaching 7 645 thousand barrels (4% of total imports) in December 2022 (the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, adopted by the Council in June, consisted of the import ban of Russian seaborne crude oil as of 5 December 2022).
The decline in imports from Russia was compensated by a rise in imports from other sources. In December 2022, the biggest suppliers of crude oil were the United States, with 344 483 thousand barrels (18% of total imports), +6 percentage points (pp) compared with the last quarter of 2021, and Norway, with 344 483 thousand barrels (17% of total imports), up 7 pp.
Imports from Libya and the United Kingdom were up by a few percentage points (+2 pp and +4 pp, respectively). Imports from Kazakhstan and Iraq remained at similar levels or increased marginally compared with the last quarter before the war.
Oscillating prices
There are two elements that define crude oil prices: the spot market and the type of crude oil. Before the Russian aggression on Ukraine, the price was stable at around 80 US dollars per barrel, with little variation between the crude oil types (less than 4 US dollars per barrel). However, the unstable geopolitical situation caused high volatility in the market, and from February 2022, crude oil prices started to rise significantly.
In March 2022, crude oil from Russia (Urals) was priced lower than other types, with a discount of approximately 16 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price of the other four most common oil types. In the following months, Russian Urals oil traded at a highly discounted price (approximately 30 US dollars per barrel).
At the same time, prices of other oil types started to oscillate more. The market was least stable in June and July 2022, with price differences between the other four most common oil types varying from 9 to 12 US dollars per barrel, three to four times higher than before the war.
By the end of the year, things started to stabilize, with decreasing imports from Russia, lower prices of crude oil, and lower volatility of prices. The EU’s biggest suppliers of crude oil were the United States, Norway, and Kazakhstan, showing that the EU managed to adapt to the changing oil market landscape and virtually remove its dependence on Russian oil.
Source: European Union