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British prompt soars on more demand, Dutch prices ease

Tuesday, 29 November 2022 | 01:00

British gas contracts for short-term delivery jumped on Monday morning on rising demand amid cold weather and low wind power generation, while Dutch contracts eased on steady supplies.

The British within-day gas contract was up 96 pence at 256 pence per therm by 1008 GMT, and the day-ahead contract rose by 107 pence to 260 p/therm, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

Near-term UK prices were up on low wind power generation, increasing the need for gas-fired power generation and cold weather lifting demand for heating, a trader said.

The UK is also receiving less gas from Norway on Monday, with the British gas system 18.4 million cubic meters (mcm)undersupplied on Monday, according to National Grid data.

There will be corrective maintenance on the FLAGS pipeline system into the UK from the North Sea until Dec 3.

This was a bullish factor given the end of maintenance on the IUK interconnector pipeline to Belgium on Wednesday, which could lift exports to continental Europe, Refinitiv analyst Wayne Bryan said in a morning note.

Peak wind generation was expected at 7.1 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and dropping to just 2 GW on Tuesday, out of a total metered capacity of almost 20 GW, Elexon data showed.

On the continent, the Dutch benchmark front-month contract fell by 5.70 euros to 119.50 euros per megawatt/hour (euros/MWh), Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

The Dutch January contract was down 4.07 euros at 125.93 euros/MWh.

Forecasts for December were not as cold as on Friday, another trader said, but stressed the TTF front-month appeared stuck in a 120-135 euros/MWh range.

A statement by Russian gas producer Gazprom GAZP.MM on Monday morning that it has decided against reducing gas supplies to Moldova should have little impact on the European market, traders said.

Europe also continues to attract sufficient liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, with a first direct delivery from Australia arriving over the weekend.

However, the current cold spell is seeing continued withdrawals from European gas stocks, with were last seen 93.94% full, down from a peak of 95.62% on Nov. 13, according to latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 1.23 euro at 77.63 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)

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