On behalf of Nordic Council of Ministers DNV has carried out a study on possible control mechanisms for Nordic ship emission. The aim with this project is to assess the base line shipping emissions and reduction potential and the possible controlling mechanisms (both incentives and regulations) available for reducing the emissions to air (NOx, PM and Sox excluding CO2) from shipping within the Nordic region.
Shipping today operates under a complex set of international and domestic regulations. Traditionally, the leaps in regulations have been event-driven, and in some cases even driven by events outside the sector. Well known examples are the Titanic disaster, which ultimately led to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, which resulted in the Oil Pollution Act (OPA 90), and the 9/11 attack, which resulted in the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. However, the environmental regulations have lagged behind those of other industries. This situation is now changing.
The increased focus on both global and local environmental issues in general, combined with the growing realisation of the actual pollution burden imposed by shipping, has led to an upsurge in both international and national regulations. Some are ready and will enter into force in the very near future, while others are still being developed and will have an impact only in the intermediate term.
The key issues that will have a significant regulatory impact in this decade are, broadly speaking, sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrous oxides (NOx) and particles (PM), greenhouse gases (particularly CO2) and ballast water. SOx, NOx and PM are all emissions to air that result from the combustion of marine fuels. The local environmental effects of these are generally well known and include acidification and eutrophication, both of which have potentially severe ecosystem impacts and negative health effects on exposed populations. This have in some parts of the world
(e.g. the EU and USA) led to strict regulations of emissions from landbased sources. In recognition of shipping becoming a dominant emission source, potentially exceeding land-based sources, emissions have been internationally regulated by IMO through the MARPOL Convention. This gives a combination of general maximum global emission levels and significantly more stringent levels applying to designated sea areas generally known as Emission Control Areas (ECAs). The regulations allow emissions to be mitigated by either changing the fuel type or cleaning the exhaust gas.
Results and conclusion
Measures for reducing SOx emission
IMO has already designated the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel as SOx ECAs. Very soon (2015) the vast majority of vessels operating in Nordic waters will have to comply with strict requirements for SOx emission (0.1% sulphur fuel). Beyond this it is difficult to see how the SOx emission may be further reduced within the ECA areas when the strictest requirements will come in to force in 2015. Whether also the Norwegian and the Barents Sea should become NOx and SOx ECAs has also been addressed. Even though this certainly will result in a reduced overall emission, DNV found no basis for claiming that general MARPOL Annex VI regulations will be efficient means of reducing the NOx and SOx emissions in the region. The main reason is that these are scarcely populated areas with limited environmental stress.
Measures for reducing NOx emission
It is expected that the Baltic Sea and the North Sea will also be designated as NOx ECAs in the near future. Hence, all vessels built after 2016 will have to comply with the strictest Tier III emission requirements for NOx (representing a 74% reduction in NOx emissions compared to Tier II levels). However, all vessels built before 2016 will in practice be unaffected by the ECA NOx regulations and they will represent a huge number of vessels continuing to operate the next 20–30 years. Therefore, whereas the effect of the SOx ECA implementation will be instantaneous, the NOx ECA requirements will gradually take effect over the next 30 years. The
ultimate potential for reduction in NOx emission from shipping in Nordic waters is around 400,000 tonnes/year moving towards a fully implemented Tier III regime (assuming today’s share of Tier III compliant engines is close to zero).
The most important action for the Nordic nations is to actively support the NOx ECA application for the Baltic and the North Sea. It is also clear that any additional regulations/actions should focus on the remaining group of vessels built prior to 2016 and possibly single out particular vessel types particularly suited for regulations. The emission calculations performed in this study revealed that one particular group of vessels dominates the ship emission picture. Passenger vessels, and particularly ferries are relatively few in numbers, but they are responsible for around 30% of the total NOx emission from shipping. This is close to 3 times the emission from any of the other vessel groups. These are also vessels which may be subject to licences from the authorities and hence actively stimulating/prioritizing Tier III compliant vessels is potentially an option.
For vessels operating between Nordc ports the Norwegian NOx found model may also provide a regulative opportunity. In essence vessels may pay a nominal NOx tax based on their emission either to the found (low rate) or to the authorities (high rate). All members that pay a NOx tax to
the Fund are eligible for financial support for investment with a proven reducing effect on NOx emission. Such an extended NOx Fund model would have to focus on vessels keel-laid prior to 2016 and consequently support measures on existing vessels such as engine refurbishments and
rebuilds, fuel saving measures and retrofit of technologies such as SCR.
LNG is excpected to be a part of the solution to make more vessels meet the Tier III requirements and initiatives for establishing LNG terminals may prove to be crucial.
Looking at the age distribution of the fleet operation in Nordic waters today it is clear that a large proportion is old. This is particularly the case for smaller vessels which are also likely to operate mostly domestically or at least locally. Hence, incentives for replacing aging vessels may be an important way of accelerating the effects of a new regulatory regime. One possibility is to introduce a system with incentives for ship scrapping and replacement, which could be implemented for a limited period. The purpose will be to encourage operators with older vessels to remove their ships from the fleet. Such a system may imply that the owner conducts a commercial scrapping of the ship, and that triggers compensation in the form of a payment from the government.
Measures for reducing PM/BC emission
Particulate Matters (PM) and Black Carbon (BC) have known negative effects to both health and the environment and while it is desirable to reduce emissions of these substances, most means have uncertain effects. Emissions of PM/BC may most certainly be expected to be reduced
with the introduction of a SOx ECA (Less sulphur fuel and scrubbers more common), but the connections to the fuel type is not well documented. General fuel savings measures may provide a valuable reductions and LNG fuel will close to eliminates this type of emission. Hence,
the most effective means of reduction in particle emission is to stimulate fuel savings and both the implementation of LNG fuelled vessels and to support the establishment of LNG bunkering facilities.
Source: Nordic Council of Ministers