Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) to China via the Altai pipeline would help China to materially close its demand-supply gap, which would provide greater stability to gas prices in the country. On 9 November 2014, Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A+/Stable) signed an additional framework agreement to supply 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to China via the Altai pipeline, known as the "western route". This follows an agreement signed in May 2014 to supply 38bcm of natural gas to China via the Power of Siberia trunkline, known as the "eastern route".

While no pricing details for the latest agreement are available, Fitch considers it unlikely that the price will be much higher than the "eastern route" agreement, at or above USD350 per thousand cubic metre (around CNY2.2 per cubic metre).This is materially lower than the cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia; in 2013, LNG accounted for around 15% total gas consumed in China. The two gas supply contracts would make Russia China's single largest gas supplier, overtaking Turkmenistan's 65bcm per year. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has an ambitious natural gas usage target of 360bcm by 2020; in 2013, the demand in China was 168bcm. Progress in securing piped gas from both Russia and central Asia is critical to achieving that target as domestic production growth has been slow. Aside from ensuring sufficient supply, the contracts with Russia also ensure supply at prices cheaper than LNG, which will stabilise natural gas prices in China over the medium term.

We estimate that a higher proportion of gas being procured through pipelines would keep China gas prices at around CNY3 per cubic metre. Currently, domestic conventional gas is priced at around CNY1.2 per cubic metre. The NDRC has been raising the city-gate level prices to increase the economic incentives for domestic gas production as well as to compensate for the higher share of LNG in the supply.

Assuming domestic conventional gas and synthetic natural gas (SNG) prices converge with the current pipeline gas price at around CNY2.2 per cubic metre, a CNY3 per cubic metre price will allow approximately CNY1 per cubic metre on average as gas transmission costs in China. On this basis, the potential gas price increase between now and 2020 will be around CNY0.5 per cubic metre, which translates to a manageable price increase of around 3% a year through 2020. Fitch views the latest pipeline gas deal as positive for domestic city gas operators such as China Resources Gas Group Limited (BBB+/Stable) and ENN Energy Holdings Limited (BBB/Stable) in the long run. Securing a stable supply ensures their growth potential will be fully met as China's natural gas sector has historically been constrained by insufficient domestic supply. Stabilisation of gas price, on the other hand, reduces the risk of margin compression caused by increasing gas purchasing cost and delays in pass-through to end users. China substantially closing the demand-supply gap with pipeline supplies will also mean downward pressure on Asian LNG prices, which is positive for importers. We also believe this is beneficial for the profitability of CNPC's mid-stream gas supply operations.
Source: Fitch Ratings