U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have increased 1.2 million barrels during the reporting week ended October 31, according to Platts analysis and a survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories essentially unchanged this reporting week.
Refineries tend to enter into maintenance when the summer driving season concludes, causing stocks to accumulate through late October, stabilize for a few weeks, and then draw down as demand returns in mid-November.

U.S. crude oil stocks are well supplied by recent historical standards. Crude inventories rose 2.1 million barrels the week ended October 24. At 379.7 million barrels at the end of the week ended October 24, crude oil stocks were 5.3% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).

Analysts expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to have increased 0.22 percentage point to 86.8%.

Crude oil runs have been high by historical standards. Refineries processed 15.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil during the week ended October 24, the largest amount of crude oil processed in that reporting week since 2006.

In the refinery sector, Husky Energy said last week it was ramping up crude oil throughput at its 155,000 b/d Lima, Ohio, refinery. The Lima facility had been operating at 70% of capacity, or 110,000 b/d, since October 16 following the closure of a segment of the Mid-Valley pipeline due to a leak. The Mid-Valley pipeline passes through Lima on its way from Texas to Michigan.

GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN FALLING

U.S. gasoline stocks likely were 200,000 barrels lower the week ended October 31, according to the analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories often decrease in this reporting week, falling 1.19 million barrels.

At 203.1 million barrels the reporting week ended October 24, U.S. gasoline stocks were 2.6% below the EIA five-year average, after a 1.2 million-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- were totaled 50.8 million barrels, 4.3% below the EIA five-year average.

Refineries beginning maintenance the week ended October 31 included Phillips 66's joint-venture Borger refinery in Texas. Phillips 66 shut the No. 40 fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit for 37 days starting the week ended October 31. The 146,000 b/d Borger refinery has two FCCs with a total capacity of 56,000 b/d.

FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline-stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 1.1 million barrels the week ended October 31. The EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks typically fall 2.9 million barrels in this reporting week.

Phillips 66 also started planned maintenance at its 80,000 b/d refinery in Rodeo, California. One source said the affected unit is the refinery's hydrocracker, which would impact distillate supply.

The amount of distillates carried by tankers departing the U.S. for Europe fell sharply the week ended October 31. Platts cFlow ship-tracking software showed Monday an estimated 80,000 metric tonnes (mt) en route for November arrival on two tankers, which is down from 180,000 mt the previous week. A slowing of exports means fewer barrels being drawn out of storage, which help stocks accumulate.
Source: Platts