A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Last Friday, crude prices rebounded after
4 days of sharp decline. The August WTI contracts rose
+$1.56 to $79.76/bbl and August Brent gained +$1.75 to
close at $90.98/bbl. It could be due to some temporary
short positions covering before the weekend as the
Market still looks weak. The last economic data from
China, Europe and US were soft and no major news was
announced during the weekend which could improve the
sovereign debts crises in Eurozone. Saudi Arabia, OPEC
largest producer, could possibly start to reassess their
supply targets as prices have fallen beyond their “fair
value” of crude of $100/bbl and the market seems well
supplied for the time being. We are moving into the
hurricane season which could provide some level of
support during the next months. This morning, crude is
trading down.
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The Northwest European fuel oil prices
posted double digit losses following Brent weakness.
Delivered 380cst product lost app.$19/mt to it’s lowest
since February 2011, while cargo prices were even
weaker, down by more than $20/mt. ARA hub continue to
struggle with delays at loading installations due to
product shortages. The Singapore fuel oil markets fell
more than $14.0 during the morning window yesterday
tracking crude movement. The Asian crack narrowed
significantly held by strong buying interests. The
bunker premiums remained around $8.5 above cargo prices.
Bunker fuel oil swaps lost nearly $21/mt at the front of
the forward curve both in Singapore and Rotterdam.
Backend was again slightly stronger, posting app.$16/mt
losses. This morning both markets are trading slightly
higher.
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Settlement
& Indications (mid values) |
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| Product |
Yesterday's
Values |
Forward
Indications |
| Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Q312 |
Q412 |
2013 |
| NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
1.56 |
79.76 |
↓ |
79.54 |
79.90 |
80.24 |
79.89 |
81.00 |
81.00 |
| ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
1.75 |
90.98 |
↓ |
90.58 |
90.75 |
90.90 |
90.74 |
91.27 |
91.27 |
| ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(10.00) |
812.00 |
↓ |
805.83 |
802.75 |
801.67 |
803.42 |
801.47 |
804.90 |
| 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
0.00 |
538.00 |
↑ |
534.50 |
529.50 |
526.00 |
530.00 |
522.00 |
517.50 |
| 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(0.25) |
538.00 |
↑ |
532.00 |
526.50 |
522.50 |
527.00 |
518.50 |
513.50 |
| 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(1.00) |
657.50 |
↑ |
562.00 |
558.50 |
555.00 |
558.50 |
551.25 |
548.75 |
| 3% no. 6 USGC WB |
1.33 |
83.70 |
↓ |
83.25 |
82.65 |
82.30 |
81.85 |
81.45 |
81.08 |
| 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(12.75) |
561.00 |
↑ |
561.00 |
555.50 |
551.25 |
556.00 |
547.25 |
541.00 |
| 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
(9.00) |
814.50 |
↓ |
806.25 |
803.25 |
802.25 |
804.25 |
800.25 |
804.25 |
| Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
(3.00) |
547.00 |
↑ |
544.75 |
539.75 |
536.25 |
540.25 |
532.25 |
527.75 |
| Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(12.50) |
569.25 |
↑ |
571.25 |
565.75 |
561.50 |
566.75 |
558.00 |
551.75 |
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Economy
fundamentals this week |
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| Fundamental
Indicators |
| Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
| New Home Sales |
Medium |
25-Jun |
10:00 AM |
May |
350K |
343K |
- |
| Case- Shiller 20-city
Index |
Medium |
26-Jun |
9:00 AM |
Apr |
-2.5% |
-2.6% |
- |
| Consumer Confience |
Medium |
26-Jul |
10:00 AM |
Jun |
63.0 |
64.9 |
- |
| MBA Mortgage Index |
Medium |
27-Jun |
7:00 AM |
23-Jun |
NA |
-0.8% |
- |
| Durable Orders |
High |
27-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
1.0% |
0.0% |
- |
| Initial Claims |
Medium |
28-Jun |
8:30 AM |
23-Jun |
385K |
387K |
- |
| GDP- Third estimate |
High |
28-Jun |
8:30 AM |
Q1 |
1.9% |
1.9% |
- |
| Personal Income |
Medium |
29-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
0.0% |
0.2% |
- |
| Personal Spending |
Medium |
29-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
0.2% |
0.1% |
- |
| PCE Prices |
High |
29-Jun |
8:30 AM |
May |
0.2% |
0.1% |
- |
| Chicago PMI |
Medium |
29-Jun |
9:45 AM |
Jun |
52.0 |
52.7 |
- |
| Michigan Sentiment |
High |
29-Jun |
9:55 AM |
Jun |
73.0 |
74.1 |
- |
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| Daily Charts |
| Resistance |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
91.80 |
80.60 |
825.75 |
| Next |
93.70 |
81.80 |
833.30 |
| Strong |
95.50 |
82.45 |
840.05 |
| Support |
Brent |
WTI |
GO |
| Near |
89.00 |
77.55 |
802.55 |
| Next |
87.65 |
76.95 |
800.00 |
| Strong |
87.05 |
75.55 |
789.20 |
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The contracts tested
important supports at the end of the last week and the
levels held nicely. A close with some gains resulted as
we recovered a half of the previous day’s loss.
Indicators continue looking oversold. There is no threat
to the supports at the moment despite the fact that we
trade a little down (on EUR/USD mainly). We would expect
a drift higher though a degree of consolidation around
the current levels may be required first. The nearby
targets are at s/t MAs (which are in the table) and a
move above any of them would be very positive. Immediate
watched reached a number of quite important levels which
might provide a degree of support to distressed energy
futures. The support is around Fridays levels yet, the
obviously shall be watched as well. |
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Source: OW Risk Management