A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude Oil jumped more than 6%, rising the most in a single day in a 3 years record gain. Despite the last days’ rally Crude Oil ends Q2 with one of the sharpest move down (-30 usd) in a quarter as markets were pressured by sovereign debts issues in the Eurozone and a more pronounced that expected slowdown in global economies. The August WTI futures closed at $84.96/bbl, up +$7.27 and Brent closed at $97.80/bbl, up +$6.44. This surge was triggered by the unexpected bullish outcome of the EU Summit meeting as Euro leaders managed to agree to inject funds directly to the banks while keeping borrowing rates low. The Euro rallied strongly which also lifted the crude prices. Iran crude export embargo to EU starts today and Oil workers in Norway are still on strike. This week is pretty heavy in terms of US economic data starting today with ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending numbers. This morning, crude is trading roughly 1,5 % down for Brent.
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The Northwest European fuel oil prices closed the week with double digit gains following rallying crude. Cargo prices were assessed up by app.$16/mt while delivered 380cst product was even stronger, up by app. $17/mt. ARA hub continued to struggle with tight product avails both for HSFO and LSFO due to closed arbitrage from the US and reduced output from European refiners. The Singapore fuel oil market prices slid down -$1.0 during the morning Platts window last Friday. Fundamentals look firm as cargo premiums were seen above $4.5/mt. The bunker premiums remained around $8.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps closed the week with up to $16/mt gains at the front of the forward curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers. Backend was around a dollar weaker. This morning both markets are trading higher compared to Friday's close.
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Settlement & Indications (mid values)
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Product
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Yesterday's Values
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Forward Indications
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Product
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Change
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Last
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Dir.
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Jul
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Aug
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Sep
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Q312
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Q412
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2013
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NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)
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7.27
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84.96
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↓
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83.87
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84.17
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84.54
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84.19
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85.47
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85.47
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ICE Brent Swap (1st month)
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6.44
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97.80
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↓
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96.16
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96.05
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95.95
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96.05
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95.95
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95.95
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ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)
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26.75
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848.50
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↑
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847.75
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843.50
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841.42
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844.22
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839.00
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835.00
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3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm
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16.00
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553.75
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↑
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557.75
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552.75
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549.25
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553.25
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544.75
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538.25
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3.5% Cargoes FOB Med
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15.00
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555.00
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↑
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555.25
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549.75
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545.75
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550.25
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541.00
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534.00
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1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE
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8.50
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578.25
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↑
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594.50
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589.25
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585.00
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589.50
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578.50
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573.00
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3% no. 6 USGC WB
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4.95
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87.35
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↑
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86.68
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86.20
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85.95
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85.60
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85.30
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84.92
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380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore
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(0.75)
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571.75
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↑
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584.50
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578.75
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574.25
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578.75
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568.50
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560.50
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0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm
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25.00
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846.00
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↑
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848.25
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844.25
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841.25
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845.25
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839.25
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837.25
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Physical Rotterdam 380 CST
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17.00
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567.25
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↑
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568.00
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563.00
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559.50
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563.50
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555.00
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548.50
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Physical Singapore 380 CST
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(1.00)
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581.00
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↑
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594.75
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589.00
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584.50
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589.50
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580.25
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572.25
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Economy fundamentals this week
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Fundamental Indicators
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Statistic
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Importance
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Date
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Time
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Period
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Consensus
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Last
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Actual
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ISM Index
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Medium
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02-Jul
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10:00 AM
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Jun
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51.5
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53.5
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-
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Construction Spending
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Medium
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02-Jul
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10:00 AM
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May
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0.2%
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0.3%
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-
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Factory Orders
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Medium
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03-Jul
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10:00 AM
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May
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0.5%
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-0.6%
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-
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Challanger Job Cuts
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Medium
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05-Jul
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7:00 AM
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Jun
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NA
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66.7%
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-
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ADP Employment Change
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Medium
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05-Jul
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8:15 AM
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Jun
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110K
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133K
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-
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Initial Claims
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Medium
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05-Jul
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8:30 AM
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30-Jun
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385K
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386K
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-
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ISM Services
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Medium
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05-Jul
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10:00 AM
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Jun
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53.0
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53.7
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-
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Nonfarm Payrolls
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Medium
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06-Jul
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8:30 AM
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Jun
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100K
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69K
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-
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Unemployment Rate
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Medium
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06-Jul
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8:30 AM
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Jun
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8.1%
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8.2%
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-
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Daily Charts
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Resistance
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Brent
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WTI
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GO
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Near
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97.80
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85.40
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863.95
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Next
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99.75
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85.45
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873.10
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Strong
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100.00
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86.70
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876.50
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Support
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Brent
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WTI
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GO
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Near
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95.65
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83.20
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849.25
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Next
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94.85
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82.35
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840.30
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Strong
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94.00
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81.55
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833.00
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Energy contracts shot higher last Friday. Both crudes and GO were targeting to test MA34 but did not create a strong threat to it. The contracts look slightly softer this morning, as they gained too much at the end of the last week we may see a slid lower today. We however, maintain a positive view and see the targets around MA34 on all charts while the support shall be at MA21. Those are important levels on all charts; a slid below MA21 would change the picture to more neutral. EUR/USD moved sharply higher last Friday, and should be watched if it maintains levels around the last weeks heights.
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Source: OW Risk Management