Dutch and British gas prices traded in a narrow range on Thursday morning amid a forecast for milder weather as the market closely monitors developments on a Russia-Ukraine deal.
The Dutch front-month contract (TRNLTTFMc1) was up 0.28 euro at 41.08 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $12.84/mmBtu, by 1002 GMT, LSEG data showed.
The Dutch May contract (TRNLTTFMc2) was up 0.25 euro at 41.28 euros/MWh.
The British day-ahead contract (TRGBNBBD1) was down 0.30 pence at 97.50 p/therm, LSEG data showed.
Weather forecasts expect temperatures to hover about 1 degree Celsius to 2 degrees C above normal for the coming two weeks, curbing gas demand, LSEG data showed.
The United States reached separate deals on Tuesday with Ukraine and Russia to pause their attacks at sea and against energy targets in the opponents’ first formal commitments since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
“Whilst in theory there appears to be some form of agreement on a partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine – to at least avoid energy infrastructure – both sides continue to claim the other has broken the agreement multiple times,” consultancy Auxilione said in a morning note.
“It therefore seems unclear as to what is next. Is progress really being made or is there just lots of talking? It does seem clear that this will not be agreed overnight.”
Analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan said in the absence of any clarification on the Ukrainian conflict, prices remain in a zone that allows Europe to retain the bulk of flexible LNG cargoes.
An EU ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG took effect on Wednesday, prohibiting the reloading of Russian cargoes at EU ports for export to third countries, which could increase the volume of Russian LNG in the EU at the expense of Asian deliveries, analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan said.
EU gas storage inventories are 33.7% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) edged down by 0.85 euro at 69.98 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters