The Middle East crude benchmark spot premium of Murban jumped on Monday to the highest in six weeks after ADNOC lowered its export forecast, while Dubai declined as OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to another big increase in July output as expected.

ADNOC set its August export forecast of the light Murban grade at 1.705 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a company report on Saturday.

That is 65,000 bpd lower than the 1.77 million bpd forecast previously.

ADNOC also lowered the forecast for September 2025 to May 2026 by 100,000-177,000 bpd while keeping forecast volumes for June and July 2025 unchanged.

ADNOC said that the reduction is primarily because of feedstock optimisation and increased Murban processing at its Ruwais plant.

SINGAPORE CASH DEALS

Cash Dubai’s premium to swaps fell 47 cents to $1.23 a barrel.

NEWS

The world’s largest group of oil producers, OPEC+, stuck to its guns on Saturday with another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers.

The Big Star, a huge tanker with 2.1 million barrels of Russia’s ESPO Blend oil onboard, has been waiting near China in a potential sign of weaker demand for the crude in the region, LSEG data showed and two traders said on Friday.

Russia has increased supplies of its oil from the Arctic to Syria, which needs the feedstock for its refineries, according to shipping data cited by an industry source and LSEG data.

The International Air Transport Association said on Sunday it expects the amount of sustainable aviation fuel produced to double in 2025 to reach 2 million tonnes, representing 0.7% of airlines’ fuel consumption.

The net profit of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft ROSN was 170 billion roubles ($2.19 billion), the company said on Friday, less than half its level a year earlier due to high interest rates, sanctions and a stronger rouble.
Source: Reuters