U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen 550,000 barrels lower during the reporting week ended November 21, according to a Platts analysis and a survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories rising 1.7 million barrels this reporting week, which typically marks the last build before winter demand starts draining inventories through the end of December.

U.S. crude oil stocks are well supplied by recent historical standards. At 381.1 million barrels the end of the week ended November 14, crude oil stocks were 6.6% above the EIA five-year average (2009-2013).

Analysts expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to have increased 0.42 percentage point to 91.6% of operable capacity.

Crude oil runs have increased three weeks in a row. With refineries returning from maintenance and U.S. Gulf Coast refining margins still positive, crude oil runs rose 161,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 15.9 million b/d, close to the 16 million-plus b/d seen from late June through mid-September.

The influence of higher crude oil runs on inventories has been mitigated by a recent rise in imports and soaring domestic crude oil production, both of which help stockpiles build.

DISTILLATE STOCKS SEEN FALLING

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen 120,000 barrels lower during the week ended November 21, which saw freezing temperatures sweep across the country.

The EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks increasing 400,000 barrels in this reporting week.

U.S. distillate exports to Europe fell slightly the week ended November 21 to 300,000 metric tonnes (mt) from 440,000 mt the previous week, Platts cFlow ship-tracking software showed.

Exports provide an additional outlet for distillates, helping to drain inventories and offset the impact from increased domestic production.

U.S. gasoline stocks likely were 620,000 barrels higher the week ended November 21, according to the analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventory levels building 1.7 million barrels in this reporting week.

At 204.6 million barrels the week ended November 14, U.S. gasoline stocks were 1.2% below the EIA five-year average.

Gasoline stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- totaled 49.9 million barrels, 3.4% below the EIA five-year average.

In refinery news, Phillips 66 restarted the No. 40 fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at its Borger refinery in Texas November 14. The FCC was closed November 8 for maintenance. The Borger facility has two FCCs with a total capacity of 56,000 b/d.

FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.
Source: Platts