Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data
Friday, 28 November 2014 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks grew 1.9 million barrels during the reporting week ended November 21, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data this week.Analysts that Platts surveyed Monday had been expecting a 550,000-barrel draw.By region, the biggest crude oil build occurred on the U.S. West Coast (USWC), where stocks grew 1.8 million barrels to 54.6 million barrels. A portion of the region's increase came from the subcategory called "Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Stocks in Transit (on Ships) from Alaska."
Analysts tend to downplay the significance of USWC stockpile movements because the region is mostly disconnected from Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil contract.
Cushing stocks rose for the third consecutive week, increasing 1.3 million barrels to 24.6 million barrels. Cushing stocks have rebounded from their summer lows below 18 million barrels, but remain at a 16 million-barrel deficit compared with one year ago.
On the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), crude oil stocks increased a modest 94,000 barrels to 194.6 million barrels. Crude oil runs were down 94,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 8.3 million b/d, helping stocks accumulate.
Total U.S. crude oil runs increased 44,000 b/d to 15.96 million b/d, following the historical pattern whereby refinery utilization ramps up as facilities return from maintenance.
Crude oil runs are also at an elevated level for this time of year, coming in 2.6% above 2013 and 8.5% above the EIA five-year average (2009-13).
With refineries processing more crude oil, the utilization rate increased 0.3 percentage point to 91.5% of operable capacity.
Analysts had been expecting an increase of 0.42 percentage point.
Imports declined 165,000 b/d to 7.5 million b/d. The biggest swing involving any one country came from Saudi Arabia. U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia fell 521,000 b/d week over week to 817,000 b/d.
Imports from Canada declined 41,000 b/d to 2.8 million b/d. Imports from Mexico were down 449,000 b/d to 506,000 b/d. Imports from Venezuela rose 90,000 b/d to 852,000 b/d.
Last week's crude oil build came despite a drop in imports and boost in crude oil runs, each of which help draw barrels out of storage.
One factor contributing to the weekly crude oil build could have been domestic production. Preliminary estimates of U.S. crude oil production rose 73,000 b/d week over week to 9.077 million b/d. That is up 13.2% from 8.019 million b/d one year ago.
U.S. DISTILLATE STOCKS FALL
U.S. distillate stocks fell 1.6 million barrels, according to EIA. Analysts had expected a 120,000-barrel draw.
That said, U.S. distillate production increased 107,000 b/d to 4.9 million b/d.
At 113.1 million barrels, distillate stocks were 17.6% below the EIA five-year average.
U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) combined low and ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks dropped 1.1 million barrels to 27.2 million barrels. Stocks have fallen for five consecutive weeks, but were still 4.2 million barrels above the year-ago level.
USGC combined low- and ULSD stocks increased 1.2 million barrels to 32.6 million barrels to sit 8.2% below the EIA five-year average.
U.S. Midwest (USMW) combined diesel stocks fell 913,000 barrels the week ended November 21 to 21.5 million barrels. Stocks are 13.2% below the EIA five-year average.
U.S. gasoline stocks rose 1.8 million barrels to 206.4 million barrels, nearly triple analysts' expectations of a 620,000-barrel increase.
USMW gasoline stocks were 1.2 million barrels lower. At 43.3 million barrels, USMW gasoline stocks were 5 million barrels below one year ago.
USAC gasoline stocks are also tight by historical standards. The region's gasoline inventory slid 433,000 barrels to 49.5 million barrels, the lowest level since December 2012.
Gasoline stocks on the USGC appear to be better supplied. USGC gasoline stocks rose 2.6 million barrels week over week. At 77.8 million barrels, current levels were 7.9% and 7.3% above the year-ago total and five-year average, respectively.
Source: Platts