A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Yesterday was a much slower day with the US closed for Veteran’s Day. Brent Crude closed at $109,07/bbl down -0,33 cents and WTI at $85,5bbl down half a dollar. The market is still focusing on the developments in Greece and is worried about the agreement in the US the Republicans and Democrats have to find out to avoid a “fiscal cliff” with dire consequences to the economy. Europe gave two more years to 2016 for Greece to cut its deficit to 2% of GDP. The IMF is so far opposed to the decision by the euro finance ministers to postpone the goal of Greece’s debt down to a level of 120% of GDP by two years until 2022. In this environment, the Euro/USD continues to trade south and should reach 1,2641 soon (100 m.a). In a monthly report the IEA said that Oil markets are well supplied and cut 4Q Oil demand forecast after Hurricane Sandy. This morning Crude Oil is trading down.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European fuel oil markets started the week with double digit gains. Both delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam and cargo prices were assessed more that $12/mt up from Friday’s close. Suppliers reported improved demand in ARA hub and Hamburg. Singapore fuel oil markets also strengthened on Monday, up more that $13/mt during morning Platts window. The physical viscosity between 180 and 380cst grades has been narrowing, assessed slightly above $11/mt on Monday. Singapore market is closed today for public holiday and will reopen tomorrow. This morning both markets are trading down.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Dec Jan Feb Q113 Q213 2013 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0.50) 85.57 ↓ 85.47 86.13 86.79 86.77 88.31 88.54 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0.33) 109.07 ↓ 106.79 106.26 105.89 105.90 104.72 104.03 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 0.00 936.75 ↓ 925.17 925.17 923.92 923.45 912.85 909.56 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 12.25 587.00 ↓ 579.75 583.25 586.75 586.50 589.25 588.25 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 10.25 577.75 ↓ 571.50 577.25 577.00 580.00 584.75 584.00 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 10.25 609.25 ↓ 604.25 608.25 612.25 612.00 616.00 615.00 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0.10) 93.35 ↓ 91.57 90.77 91.00 91.43 91.33 91.24 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore 13.25 600.50 ↓ 603.75 606.25 609.50 609.25 612.75 611.75 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 1.75 933.75 ↓ 925.25 925.25 924.25 924.25 916.25 913.25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 13.00 594.75 ↓ 590.00 593.50 597.00 596.75 599.50 598.50 Physical Singapore 380 CST 14.00 606.75 ↓ 614.00 616.50 619.75 620.00 623.50 622.50

Focus of the day: ARA

The previous week reported avails situation for RMK product has changed the last days due to several VLCC leaving ARA. Therefore, within only a few days, the premiums are back to normal again on high viscosity products. At the same time we see rather aggressive premiums on the 380cst side. Both HS and LS grades are being offered close to paper levels which should prove a good product situation. HI/LO between 1% and 3,5% barges settled around 25usd for the moment.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Treasury Budget Medium 13-Nov 2:00 PM Oct -$113.0B -$98.5B - Retail Sales High 14-Nov 8:30 AM Oct -0.4% 1.1% - Core PPI High 14-Nov 8:30 AM Oct 0.1% 0.0% - Business Inventories Medium 14-Nov 10:00 AM Sep 0.6% 0.6% - FOMC Minutes High 14-Nov 2:00 PM 24-Oct - - - Initial Claims Medium 15-Nov 8:30 AM 10-Nov 475K 355K - Core CPI High 15-Nov 8:30 AM Oct 0.1% 0.1% - Empire Manufacturing Medium 15-Nov 8:30 AM Nov -8.0 -6.2 - Philadelphia Fed Medium 15-Nov 10:00 AM Nov -2.0 5.7 - Industrial Production Medium 16-Nov 9:15 AM Oct 0.0% 0.4% - Capacity Utilization Medium 16-Nov 9:15 AM Oct 78.3% 78.3% -

Source: OW Risk Management