A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Despite initial weakness Brent rebounded to reach Friday pre-US Unemployment level. The December WTI futures rose +$0.79 to $85.65/bbl and Brent contracts settled at $107.73/bbl, up $2.05. The market is in wait- and- see mode looking forward to the US election result and Greece parliament vote tomorrow evening. There will be a change in Chinese leadership this coming week and market will also be looking for any hints of new economic growth measures. This morning the European PMI services came out slightly lower than expected at 46,0 vs 46,2 exp. UK September Industrial Production came out much lower than expected at -1,7% vs -0,6%exp. and so did the Manufacturing at 0,1% vs 0,4% exp. Little data from the US with only the New York Purchasing Manager (ISM ) and later on the Weekly API numbers. This morning, crude prices are trading slightly higher.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil prices closed another day with a loss yesterday. Both delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam and cargo prices were assessed down by app.$9/mt. Demand in the area remained subdued and prompt hsfo deliveries continuously were hindered by delays at loading installations. The Singapore fuel oil markets plunged more than -$17.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The market is heavily weighed down by ample supply coupled with soft demand and the forward price structure is sliding deeper into contango. The delivered bunker premiums were up between around $6.0 to $9.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Nov Dec Jan Q113 Q213 2013 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0.79 85.65 ↑ 86.37 86.90 87.50 88.02 89.00 89.02 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 2.05 107.73 ↑ 107.95 107.15 106.55 106.08 104.87 104.37 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (2.50) 922.50 ↑ 936.00 933.92 931.08 926.83 915.64 914.25 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (8.75) 568.25 ↑ 581.75 581.75 584.75 587.25 589.00 587.00 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (9.50) 564.25 ↑ 575.75 575.75 575.50 582.50 585.00 583.00 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (6.75) 602.25 ↑ 613.50 613.25 616.00 618.25 619.75 617.75 3% no. 6 USGC WB 0.75 91.23 ↓ 91.60 90.90 91.25 91.55 91.20 91.20 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (17.25) 592.00 ↑ 606.00 606.25 607.50 610.50 612.75 611.00 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (3.25) 919.75 ↑ 936.25 934.25 932.25 928.25 917.25 913.25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (9.00) 577.25 ↑ 592.00 592.00 595.00 597.50 599.25 597.25 Physical Singapore 380 CST (15.50) 598.50 ↑ 616.25 616.50 617.75 621.25 623.50 621.75

Focus of the day: ARA

Last weeks ARA trading was affected by mainly two things. 1) the high volatility in oil prices causing a big drop on fuel prices whilst the HILO spread between 3,5% and 1% barges has dropped to around 25/30usd. With these conditions suppliers' premiums were quite volatile as well. 2) There seems to be a lot of RMK HS product available in the market for November and December, majors apparently have to clean up their storage to get in the resupply. We will follow both developments closely in the coming days.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual ISM Service Medium 05-Nov 10:00 AM Oct 54.5 55.1 54.2 MBA Mortgage Index Medium 07-Nov 7:00 AM 03-Nov NA -4.8% - Consumer Credit Medium 07-Nov 3:00 PM Sep $10.0B $18.1B - Initial Claims Medium 08-Nov 8:30 AM 03-Nov 370K 363K - Trade Balance Medium 08-Nov 8:30 AM Sep -$45.4B -$44.2B - Michigan Sentiment Medium 09-Nov 9:55 AM Nov 83.5 82.6 - Wholesale Inventories Medium 09-Nov 10:00 AM Sep 0.7% 0.5% -

Source: OW Risk Management