The UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) declined by 2.41% this week, falling 3.84 points to close at 155.76, in contrast to the S&P 500's 2.92% gain. The broader LNG market continues to evolve amid falling gas prices in Asia and Europe, with Europe benefiting from redirected US LNG shipments due to geopolitical disruptions and a flexible US export model. Strong EU storage injections and weak Chinese demand—down 26% year-on-year in April—are shaping global flows. Within the UPI, quarterly rebalancing coincided with generally quiet trading, though Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines posted a steep 11.5% loss. Awilco LNG also dropped 9.1%, contributing to the index's first decline in three weeks. On the positive side, Capital Clean Energy Carriers and New Fortress Energy surged over 10%, while Cool Company and MISC posted solid gains. Market sentiment remains cautious amid persistent uncertainty.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, lost 3.84 points (-2.41%), closing at 155.76 points, while the S&P 500 index gained 2.92%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader view
Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe continue to fall, with Europe emerging as the unexpected and lucky winner in the LNG sector from the latest geopolitical turmoil – the US tariff war with the world and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The halt in Russian gas supplies has led Europe to make desperate acquisitions of LNG infrastructure, which is currently enabling the flow of Chinese-ordered US LNG to Europe. This is due to a globally unique feature of the US Free on Board gas business model, which allows the new owner to change the destination once on board.
“EU storage injections stood 70% above last year’s levels since the start, totalling at near 7 bcm, and boosting EU storage levels to above 40% of working capacity by early May,” said Greg Molnar of the International Energy Agency, adding: “the surge in LNG imports (up by 20% yoy), together with weaker demand in the second half of April (partly on strong solar output) helped to speed up storage injections.”
The weekly Global LNG report from Reuters further quotes Alex Froley of ICIS: “China’s demand remains subdued, with LNG imports down 26% in April 2025 compared to April 2024, while imports for January-April this year were down 23% from the year before, Froley said.” Interestingly, according to Spark Commodities, the Atlantic tanker spot price has exceeded $40,000 per day. Pacific remains at $22,250 per day.
Constituents
The UPI has undergone its regular quarterly rebalancing, with adjustments made mainly to the weightings of individual companies, thanks to the work of company managements with buybacks and the issuance of new shares. Incidentally, one fresh buyback announcement was made today by Cool Company, which may purchase up to seven million shares for a total of forty million dollars between the first of April and the end of the year. The company has procured less than one hundred thousand shares at an average price of $6.06.
The UPI fell for the first time in three weeks, with Japanese companies mainly to blame. However, the UPI had another quiet week with only three double-digit moves—two up and one down. Let’s look at the declining companies first.
The biggest loser was Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104u, which lost 11.5%. Behind it was Norway’s Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG) with a 9.1% loss. Both companies were on the verge of a more sustained decline.
However, further losses were much smaller. BP (NYQ: BP) lost 3.7%, Excelerate Energy (NYQ: EE) dropped 3%, NYK Line (TSE: 9101) fell 2.7%, and SM Korea Line (KRX: 005880) lost 2.6%. More or less, all of the companies mentioned are based on their balance sheet values for their next direction.
On the other hand, Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYQ: CCEC) and New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE) are among the gainers, having risen 10.5% and 10.1%, respectively.
There was also a big gap from others here, with Cool Company (NYQ/OSE: CLCO) rising 6.2% and MISC (KLSE: 3816) adding 3.6%.
In general, the uncertainty of further near-term developments is considerable.
Crystal Ball
Despite the growing global uncertainty caused by the US administration, our outlook remains cautiously optimistic. However, we expect increased volatility in the coming weeks. LNG spot rates stayed low, but the impact remains marginal for most UPI constituents. The market is watching for potential breakouts at key resistance levels, which could determine the next price direction.
Our outlook remains steadfastly positive in the long term. The burgeoning demand for LNG, bolstered by situational or management-driven actions and the potential for new long-term contracts, paints a promising picture. Investors should watch policy developments, market competition, and upcoming corporate earnings for further direction.
Source: By Tomas Novotny, UP-Indices.com