After years of constrained egress on export pipelines, Alberta’s Oil Sands will see surplus capacity in early 2024 with the start of the 590,000 b/d TransMountain Expansion from Alberta to the west coast of British Columbia. All else equal, this should help keep the heavy oil price differential between Hardisty and Houston relatively tight.

Competition in markets is supposed to bring down prices for consumers, and this is the case for pipeline tolls out of Alberta. Enbridge has filed for lower international joint tariffs on its Mainline system connecting to the USGC, hoping to retain high utilization of its system. It looks like TMX toll rates have the edge for spot barrels when comparing the two destinations, being about $1.60 per barrel cheaper than on the Enbridge lines to the USGC. But the cost of the TMX project has skyrocketed, and if costs continue to rise, the variable component of the toll will increase, cutting into that higher netback for shippers.
Source: ESAI Energy